In a nutshell home price continued their upward climb in November 2021 yet there was some moderation which may become clearer in the coming months as data is a few months behind. 

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose 18.8% on a year-over-year basis and was slightly lower than October 2021 which logged a 19% annual gain. 

The 10-city composite climbed 16.8% annually, down from 17.2% in the previous month. The 20-city composite grew 18.3%, down from 18.5% in October.

Distilling the #'s: Sunbelt cities continue to outperform the larger market as follows:

  • Phoenix: 32.2% YOY
  • Tampa: 29% YOY
  • Miami: 26.6% YOY

The traditional Northeast and Rust Belt showed smaller gains including Chicago, Minneapolis and Washington DC gaining a respective 11% YOY.

The two cities I follow and work in:

  • Denver: 20.05% YOY
  • New York: 13.81% YOY

While the numbers are impressive especially when traditionally the selling season begins to cool as does the weather, again we are looking back. While inventory remails stubbornly low a few factors may begin to influence the real estate markets going forward including but not limited to:

  • Mortgage rates have recently hit a 2-yr high
  • Inflation continues unabated
  • Supply chain constrains continue even though to a lesser degree
  • The equity markets have been on a roller-coaster with a seemingly downward bias
  • The Federal Reserve is inclined to raise interest rates
  • Global instability i.e. Ukraine and Middle East Oil may impact the United States

And what I find most telling, sellers may be getting more caution: A recent report from Realtor.com found that 14 out of the top 50 largest U.S. cities experienced listing price declines over the prior year in December.

If I may add the following:

  • The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased to 3.72% from 3.64% (still historically low).
  • Refinance applications fell 13% for the week and were 53% lower year over year.
  • Mortgage applications to purchase a home were 11% lower than a year ago.

I may have been premature earlier but it is never too late to buckle one's seat belts…..

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