If you have been paying attention you would know that pending home sales in the Northern Palm Beaches have been dropping significantly. They fell again in July by 12%. They have now fallen for 4 straight months. You have to go all the way back to June of 2020 to find a time when the number of homes under contract was lower. Pending home sales in the Jupiter area are 4% lower than they were a year ago. As of August 1st, they have fallen behind year ago numbers for the first time in 14 months.

It's the same story in the million dollar market for Jupiter home sales. While we will still see numbers reported late, million dollar home sales were down compared to year ago numbers by a dramatic 34%. It's the first time sales above a million dollars have fallen behind year ago numbers in 14 months. Pending home sales above the million dollar threshold have fallen 45% since their peak in April. This morning they sit at the lowest levels we have seen since January 6th.

So, if anyone tells you Jupiter home sales are robust, they are not paying attention, or trying to sell you something. The big question is what is driving the slowdown? All signs still point to a traditional summer slowdown coupled with a robust market that traveled too far, too fast. Inventory is up for the 3rd straight month, but the increases have hardly been dramatic. However, today's selection for buyers is up 10% since the all time lows we set back on May 1st. Buyer's should not get too excited however as inventory sucks and still is down 65% from year ago numbers.

Median prices have stagnated with condo prices falling for the first time in 12 months. Median single family home prices were virtually unchanged in July and over the past 5 months have been stuck in a very tight range between $700,000 and $707,250. This pause in prices is very good in the long run as median condo prices have risen 26% over the past year with single family home prices up 27%.

You will see a lot of talk about the foreclosure moratorium that ended last night at midnight. Some experts tell you a looming disaster awaits while others say it's no big deal. Our elected officials set aside $50 billion dollars to assist renters and landlords and little of that money has been handed out. The increase in home values in our area will also keep most landlords out of the foreclosure game even though they have been hurt financially. We will see some tenants evicted and with less that stellar credit and poor inventory many will be forced to relocate or end up on the streets. It's the nature of the beast.

As long as the government keeps printing trillions of dollars to stimulate the economy and as long as the international financial community accepts the US dollar as having value things are good. It would seem a major macro-economic downturn and a pull back in the fortunes of the real estate market will go somewhat hand in hand. What comes first, and when, is what we don't know. All I know is prices of real estate in the Jupiter area cannot keep going up 27% a year without a pull back.

Interest rates have played a significant role in Jupiter home sales as they have helped buyers afford more home. The reality is there isn't much room for them to fall from here. If interest rates start climbing, if inflation is going to remain significant, anything can happen.

Stay tuned, stay informed and if planning on doing anything real estate, interview brokers and ask a lot of questions. Paradise Sharks loves to interview and loves to answer questions. We are not trying to sell you, we are trying to educate you so you can make informed decisions. We aren't the biggest broker in town and frankly don't ever want to be. We want to shower you with fantastic customer service at prices our competition can only dream about. If you would like to learn more, contact us anytime at tom@paradisesharks.com or 561.308.0175.

Fins up……

#jupiterhomeales

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