𧨠"Homebuilders Are Bleeding Out: 124,000 New Homes and No Buyers—The Breakdown You Can't Ignore"
New home prices are actually cheaper than existing homes—that's a first." — CNBC's Fast Money panel.
Arizona's housing market isn't just cooling—it's cracking. And if you're watching the builder space, the pain is real.
π National builder inventory just hit a 16-year high. According to ResiClub, the number of unsold completed new single-family homes at the end of August 2025 hit 124,000—the highest level since July 2009, when it reached 126,000.
Here's the full breakdown from ResiClub:
August 2016 —> 61,000 August 2017 —> 63,000 August 2018 —> 69,000 August 2019 —> 79,000 August 2020 —> 52,000 August 2021 —> 34,000 August 2022 —> 45,000 August 2023 —> 72,000 August 2024 —> 105,000 August 2025 —> 124,000
That's a 265% jump since 2021. Builders are sitting on product—and it's starting to rot.
𧱠Arizona's Permit Pulse: October 2025
According to Maricopa County's Permitting Reports, the monthly permits issued in September 2025 show a noticeable slowdown in new applications across Phoenix, Mesa, and Tempe. Weekly permit filings for late September dipped below seasonal norms, especially for single-family starts.
Meanwhile, the NAHB Housing Permit Portal confirms that Arizona's year-to-date single-family permits are down 8.3% compared to 2024. That's a reversal from last year's growth—and a clear signal that builders are pulling back.
π Where's the Pressure Building?
Sun Belt ZIPs (yes, that includes Arizona) are seeing resale inventory surge past 2019 levels.
Builders are offering aggressive incentives just to move product.
Rate buydowns are eating into profits, and input costs aren't letting up.
Finished homes are stacking up, especially in Phoenix's fringe markets and Tucson's new build corridors.
π Wall Street's Take: Bleeding Margins
The XHB HomeBuilder ETF and ITB Construction ETF are tanking—down double digits in a week. Major players like D.R. Horton, Pulte, and Toll Brothers are bleeding out. CNBC's Fast Money traders didn't hold back:
"Lower rates won't fix profitability if costs keep climbing." "Builders are buying down mortgage rates by 100 basis points—it's margin-destructive."
πΊ Watch the Full Clip Here πΊ
π― Investor Playbook: Leverage Is Back
If you're buying, negotiating, or flipping—this is your moment. Builders are vulnerable. They're sitting on product. And they're more flexible than they've been in years.
π¬ My Take
This isn't 2008—but it's not 2021 either. The ground game is shifting. If you're in Tempe, Mesa, or Queen Creek, start watching ZIP-level inventory and builder permit activity. Deals are coming. But only if you know where to look.
And if you're a buyer right now—negotiate hard. On price. On terms. On everything. The only people buying today are those who have to or are chasing the American Dream. That's it.
Don't believe the hype. Don't let a sales agent tell you "homes are moving fast" when the data says otherwise. Builders are sitting on inventory. They're bleeding margins. And they're more flexible than they'll admit.
Just last week, I walked a new development with clients. A year ago, they ran lottery releases—you couldn't even choose your lot. This time? Any lot we asked about was available. And before we even made an offer, they were already talking incentives. That's not marketing spin—that's desperation in disguise.
And please—don't visit these sites without your agent first. If you do, they might not pay your agent a commission. And if that agent happens to be your friend—or worse, your family member—that next dinner is going to be awkward. All joking aside, a good agent (like myself) isn't just tagging along. We're guiding you through negotiations, catching the fine print, and making sure you don't leave money on the table.
You won't get a discount for skipping your agent. In fact, you might get more by having one.
And if you've been strictly hunting resale? It might be time to pivot. Builders are offering lower mortgage rates through buydowns, and in many cases, new builds are already priced below resale. That's not a fluke—it's a shift. And it's one buyers need to pay attention to.
It's the little words. The subtle shifts. The terms they don't say out loud but can't hide. That's where the real story lives.
If you're serious, be strategic. If you're shopping, be ruthless. The leverage is yours—use it.
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