Sunday, August 31, 2025

AriZona’s Housing Reality Check: It’s F**ked!!!

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It's the end of August, the start of September, and football 🏈 is finally here.  


The market's throwing just as many curveballs as the Cowboys' front office. (Yeah, I'm still salty about that Micah Parsons trade — Super Bowl here we come… JK, but still a fan. 🤠)


On the college side, it's Forks Up! — Go Devils!


Plenty to unpack — so let's dive in before kickoff hits Thursday/Saturday.


Now back to real estate:


Juan C Pesqueira
Arizona Real Estate Insider

Market Snapshot🎯July 2025

Even Freddie Mac Knows Housing is So Damn Expensive, They're Now Backing Manufactured Home Loans


We've been talking about investing in manufactured housing for a while now — maybe Freddie Mac's been secretly reading the blog and decided to jump in. Housing costs are through the roof, buyers are priced out left and right, and here comes Freddie saying, "Hey, maybe we should make more loans on manufactured homes."


Welcome to the party, Freddie. You're a little late, but better late than never. We've been pointing out for months that this is one of the most overlooked, underpriced, and opportunity-packed corners of the market. And now one of the biggest names in finance is confirming what we already know: manufactured housing is not just affordable — it's investable.


According to their August 6th announcement, Freddie Mac is expanding financing options to increase the availability of affordable housing. The move includes support for more manufactured homes, aiming to give lenders and buyers more flexibility in today's brutally expensive housing environment. Translation? They see what we see: people need more options, and investors need more angles.


"Manufactured homes are an important part of the solution to our nation's housing affordability crisis," said Sonu Mittal, Freddie Mac's SVP of Single-Family Acquisitions.


This isn't just a small tweak — it's Freddie stepping in to broaden its reach in a market they've historically ignored. Traditionally, Freddie Mac loans have been geared toward first-time buyers or borrowers who fit neatly into the conventional mortgage box. Now, by expanding into manufactured housing, they're opening doors for buyers and investors who've been shut out of the single-family home market thanks to rising rates and skyrocketing prices.


Want the full scoop—including the latest changes, key guidelines, and my take? Click here to dive in.

Arizona's Housing Reality Check: It's F**ked!!!


According to the ARCHES 2025 State of Housing in Arizona report from ASU's Morrison Institute and UA's Drachman Institute, our housing market has hit a breaking point. Renters and homeowners are stretched to the brink, eviction filings are spiking, and homelessness is climbing—all while population growth accelerates. Buckle up: this isn't pretty, but it's the truth you need to see.


Buyers: "You're Not Crazy—It Really Is That Bad"


Key Findings

  • $450,000 average single-family home price in Phoenix

  • ~7% mortgage rates for a 30-year fixed loan

  • 52,920 new homes built in 2023, but 80% are single-family


Homeownership has morphed into an exclusive club. The average Phoenix buyer faces sky-high prices and interest rates that eat into any hope of steady monthly payments. Meanwhile, new construction barely scratches the surface of what middle- and modest-income families can actually afford. No wonder competition is fierce and starter homes are all but extinct.


Click to read the full post and dive into the ARCHES 2025 State of Housing in Arizona report from ASU's Morrison Institute and UA's Drachman Institute.

Phoenix Sees Surge in Starter Home Listings — What Does It Mean for Buyers?


🏡 Starter home sales are finally showing signs of life, and Phoenix is leading the charge in one of the most important metrics.


According to a recent report by BusinessWire, starter home sales across the U.S. jumped 4% in June — a rare bright spot in an otherwise sluggish housing market.


But here's the real story for us in Arizona:


📈 Phoenix ranks #3 in the nation for the biggest increase in active starter home listings


🔥 Active listings of starter homes rose 43.1% year-over-year in Phoenix.

  • That puts us behind only Las Vegas (53.6%) and San Diego (44.1%).

Only one metro — San Antonio — actually saw a drop in listings. Everywhere else, there's movement, but Phoenix is on fire when it comes to new inventory hitting the market in the entry-level space.


👉 Read the full post: Starter Homes Surge in Phoenix: Finally Some Good News?

📰 PHOENIX-AREA CONDO MARKET UPDATE
📅 July 2025 Edition


Tempe | Scottsdale | Phoenix


Phoenix

  • Inventory: 4.94 months (↓1% MoM, ↑45% YoY)

  • Sold-to-list: 98%

  • Days on market: 54

  • Median price: $332,750 Balanced market. More inventory than last year, but buyers should still act fast.

Tempe

  • Inventory: 4.06 months (0% MoM, ↑1% YoY)

  • Sold-to-list: 97%

  • Days on market: 44

  • Median price: $332,500 Stable and steady. Good for buyers and sellers seeking predictability.

Scottsdale

  • Inventory: 3.52 months (↓12% MoM, ↓1% YoY)

  • Sold-to-list: 97%

  • Days on market: 62

  • Median price: $525,500 Seller's market. Low inventory and premium pricing favor well-positioned listings.


Quick Take: Phoenix and Tempe offer balance and affordability. Scottsdale is hot for luxury sellers. Across the board, homes are selling close to asking and moving within 1–2 months. Whether you're buying, selling, or investing—timing and pricing matter.

AriZona Manufactured/Mobile Home Market Trends Update – July 2025


The manufactured/mobile home market across Arizona is holding steady — still affordable, still offering negotiating room, and still worth a closer look if you're a buyer or investor.


Here's the quick snapshot:


Phoenix, Arizona

  • Months of Inventory: 6.65 (balanced)

  • Sold-to-List Price: 93%

  • Median Days on Market: 72

  • Median Sold Price: $142,500


Mesa, Arizona

  • Months of Inventory: 6.3 (balanced)

  • Sold-to-List Price: 92%

  • Median Days on Market: 62

  • Median Sold Price: $134,950


Apache Junction, Arizona

  • Months of Inventory: 4.34 (balanced leaning seller)

  • Sold-to-List Price: 92%

  • Median Days on Market: 75

  • Median Sold Price: $81,750


Tucson, Arizona

  • Months of Inventory: 7.2 (buyer's market)

  • Sold-to-List Price: 94%

  • Median Days on Market: 50

  • Median Sold Price: $53,750


Takeaway: Affordable, negotiable, and full of opportunity — the manufactured housing market may not make flashy headlines, but it's where smart money is paying attention.

🏙️ Quick Take: June 2025 Commercial Real Estate Market Insights (National Overview)


performance varied by asset class.


🏢 Office: Still in Flux

Vacancy hit 14.1%, with rent growth slowing to 0.8%.

  • Class A: Positive absorption but high vacancy (20.5%).

  • Class B: More stable with better rent growth.

  • Class C: Under pressure.

Major markets like Boston and Chicago saw cuts; New York rebounded.


🏘️ Multifamily: Stabilizing, But Watch Oversupply

Net absorption up 19% YoY, completions down 9%.

Vacancy rose to 8.1% as new supply still outpaces demand.

Sun Belt markets (think Austin, parts of Florida) are seeing rent declines.

Midwest cities are outperforming due to tighter supply-demand balance.


🛍️ Retail: Mixed Signals

Absorption turned negative, rent growth slowed to 1.7%.

General retail is the only segment with positive absorption.

Malls and neighborhood centers are cutting inventory to reduce vacancies.

Despite weak sentiment, retail trade sales are growing, which may stabilize the sector.


🏭 Industrial: Cooling Off

Net absorption down 48% YoY, hitting a 10-year low.

Vacancy up to 7.4%, with supply outpacing demand 4:1.

Logistics remains strong; Flex space is struggling.

Rent growth is slowing, with regional disparities—LA and Inland Empire are seeing sharp declines.


🏨 Hospitality: Rebounding Profitability

Occupancy at 63.1%, still below pre-pandemic levels.

ADR up 22%, RevPAR up 17% vs. 2019.

Leisure destinations like Hawaii are outperforming; urban markets lag.


What does this mean for Arizona investors?  Discover how this shift could unlock new opportunities in affordable housing and portfolio growth. 👉 Click here to find out

IN OTHER NEWS


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