Where Phoenix Real Estate Is Headed Next: 🌍 2025 National Forecasts, 2nd Half Outlook

͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌     ͏ ‌    ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­

View this email in your browser Hope you're staying cool — and hydrated — out there. Phoenix isn't playing around this summer. It's so hot, I saw a lizard wearing sunscreen. But while the heat outside is breaking thermometers, the real estate market is delivering a mixed bag: hot pockets of activity, some cooling trends, and signals you shouldn't ignore. This month's update covers May's data (always a month behind), and I'm breaking it down by what matters most—from national forecasts to hyper-local condo trends, surging suburbs, and even the quiet debt buildup in commercial real estate. Let's get into it: Market Snapshot🎯May 2025 Where Phoenix is Headed Based on 🌍National 2025 Housing Market Forecasts — 2nd Half Edition The second half of the year is here, and real estate experts are… all over the place. Some see price growth. Others predict small declines. Here's the breakdown: 🔢 National Market Quick Hits: Home Prices Cotality: +4.3% Fannie Mae: +4.1% NAR: +3.0% MBA: +1.3% Redfin: -1.0% Zillow: -1.4% Existing Home Sale Totals NAR: 4.30 million MBA: 4.26 million Fannie Mae: 4.23 million Zillow: 4.12 millionn Mortgage Rates MBA: 6.6% NAR: 6.4% Fannie Mae: 6.1% Total Mortgage Originations Fannie Mae: $1.99 trillion MBA: $2.07 trillion 📍 Phoenix Snapshot: Median price: ~$445K (flat to down slightly) Inventory: Up 25% YoY Days on Market: 45+ Price reductions: >35% of homes Rent growth: Flat Local rates: ~6.7% 📉 What I'm Seeing on the Ground: Condos & townhomes: softening –1% to –3% SF homes ($400K–$700K): flat to slight drop Luxury ($1.5M+): holding steady in Paradise Valley & Arcadia Rentals: cooling, especially short-term to long-term conversions 🔮 My Take: "Trying to predict real estate? Nobody really knows—not even me. But from the data, boots-on-the-ground activity, and yes, ChatGPT's help—I'm not seeing a crash. Just a market catching its breath. If you're buying, stick to your budget. If you're selling, price it right or sit. And if you find your perfect home? Don't overthink it. Real estate's always been a long-term game." These Phoenix Suburbs Have Seen the Highest Growth in Renters The old narrative that "cities are for renters, suburbs are for owners" is crumbling — and Metro Phoenix is a prime example. New data from Point2Homes, using U.S. Census numbers, shows an unmistakable shift: suburban renting is rising fast, and Phoenix's outer edges are heating up. 🔍 Suburbs on the Rise: Glendale leads with renters making up 42.4% of households — just shy of renter-majority status. Peoria added the most renters: 2,374 households over five years. Goodyear followed closely with 1,687 new rental households. Sun Lakes saw the fastest renter growth rate at 41.3%. Eloy and Saddlebrooke also logged steep increases. So why are suburbs becoming rental magnets? 📈 Key Drivers: High home prices and interest rates are pushing affordability limits. Renters want flexibility and more space — especially with remote work. Boomers downsizing, younger generations delaying ownership. 💡 Investor Insight: This isn't just a trend — it's an opportunity. Build-to-rent communities, updated single-family homes, and small multifamily units in Peoria, Goodyear, and Glendale are primed for strong rental demand and long-term value. Fast-growing areas like Eloy and Sun Lakes offer additional upside for value-add plays. Bottom Line: The Phoenix rental wave is expanding beyond city limits. Whether you're rebalancing a portfolio or considering your first suburban deal, now's the time to zoom out and take the burbs seriously. 🏗️ May's New Home Sales Slump: What It Signals for Housing Supply New U.S. single-family home sales dropped sharply in May, falling 13.7% month-over-month to 623,000 units — a figure well below Wall Street's expectations and pre-pandemic norms. The reason? Persistently high mortgage rates hovering around 7% throughout the month kept many buyers on the sidelines. 📉 Key Takeaways: The May sales pace was 6.3% lower than the same time last year. The slowdown erased gains from earlier in the spring. Homebuilders cite both affordability pressures and weakened consumer confidence. 🏘️ Inventory Surge: There were 507,000 new homes for sale at the end of May. That's a 9.8-month supply — the largest in nearly 3 years and a level not seen consistently since 2009 during the Great Recession. 💡 Investor Insight:This slowdown could create opportunity. More inventory means more negotiation power — especially in markets where prices haven't adjusted yet. But softening demand suggests caution for short-term flips or high-leverage plays. 📰 PHOENIX-AREA CONDO MARKET UPDATE 📅 May 2025 Edition 📊 Quick Snapshot (See Infographic) The condo market across Greater Phoenix is steady, balanced, and full of opportunity. Whether you're selling, downsizing, investing, relocating from out of state, or buying for your student near ASU — now's the time to make your move smartly. 🔥 What's Happening by City: 📍Tempe Inventory: 5.38 months (balanced) Median Price: $387,000 Selling for: 97% of asking Days on Market: 42 Tempe condos are moving fast, especially near ASU. If you're a parent planning for fall, or a buyer looking for a lifestyle shift, this market offers options — but not forever. 📍Scottsdale Inventory: 5.98 months Median Price: $600,000 Selling for: 97% of asking Days on Market: 52 Scottsdale condos appeal to out-of-state buyers and downsizers looking for resort-style living. A stable, strong market with long-term value. 📍Phoenix Inventory: 5.83 months Median Price: $345,000 Selling for: 98% of asking Days on Market: 50 Phoenix offers affordability, central access, and solid investment potential. A great spot for first-time buyers and anyone looking to own without overreaching. 📍Chandler (Bonus Market) Inventory: 6.9 months Median Price: $395,000 Selling for: 99% of asking Days on Market: 51 Chandler is ideal for buyers who want a newer condo, good schools, and tech proximity. Quiet but competitive — a strong option for relocation or rightsizing. 🧭 My Advice: ✅ Buyers — You have time to breathe, but be ready to act on the right condo. ✅ Sellers — Price competitively and prep well. Homes are selling close to asking. ✅ Parents — Don't wait for dorm deadlines. Lock something in before the rush. ✅ Downsizers & Out-of-State Buyers — This is your window for a smoother, lower-stress move. 📌 Heads-up: Some condos are on leased land, others land-owned, and a few in retirement communities. That affects value, lending, and long-term goals. Reach out if you're unsure. 🏡 Arizona Manufactured/Mobile Home Market Trends Report – May 2025 While the spotlight stays on Phoenix skyscrapers and Scottsdale flips, Arizona's manufactured housing quietly delivers what smart investors crave: affordability, balance, and solid rental returns. Our May 2025 snapshot across the state highlights just how much potential is tucked inside this overlooked asset class. 🔍 Market Highlights by City: Phoenix📦 Inventory: 8.74 months | ⏳ Days on Market: 50 | 💰 Sold Price: $174,000   💡 Insight: A balanced market with strong $1.5K/month rental demand to support cash flow. Mesa📦 Inventory: 8.68 | ⏳ DOM: 80 | 💰 Sold Price: $105,000   💡 Insight: Slower pace creates space to negotiate. Attractive rent-to-price ratios. Apache Junction📦 Inventory: 6.39 | ⏳ DOM: 67 | 💰 Sold Price: $102,500  💡 Insight: Tightest supply in the state — great for rental yield. Glendale📦 Inventory: 10.55 | ⏳ DOM: 158 | 💰 Sold Price: $114,500   💡 Insight: High inventory = negotiation leverage. Still commanding solid prices. Chandler📦 Inventory: 8.91 | ⏳ DOM: 53 | 💰 Sold Price: $176,250   💡 Insight: Competitive, quick-turn market with top-tier rent potential. Tucson📦 Inventory: 7.3 | ⏳ DOM: 56 | 💰 Sold Price: $60,000 💡 Insight: Lowest barrier to entry in the state. Perfect for high cap-rate hunters. 📊 Why It Matters for InvestorsWith prices ranging from $60K to $176K, manufactured homes offer a lower-cost gateway into real estate without sacrificing rental performance. These aren't desperate sellers or overheated listings — they're steady, negotiable, and rent-ready. 🔥 Pro Tip: Target slower markets like Glendale or Mesa for value-add strategies. Extended days on market often reveal motivated sellers and room for creative deal structuring. Final Word: Manufactured housing in Arizona isn't just affordable — it's strategic. As mainstream investors chase headlines, you have the chance to build quiet momentum in a space most overlook. 🧨Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Debit is Quietly Climbing — And that's a Warning Sign While CRE deal volume slowed in Q1 2025, commercial mortgage debt still rose by $40.1B, hitting $4.7 trillion. That means owners aren't selling—they're refinancing, extending, or holding on, hoping the market turns. In Phoenix, this could signal distress brewing quietly, especially in office and retail. If rates don't drop or fundamentals don't improve, things could get ugly fast. ⚠️ We've covered this before—remember the $384B debt time bomb? If you read my blog, don't say I didn't warn you. 👉 Read the full article: CRE Mortgage Debt Rises in Q1 👉 Missed the April warning? Here it is again 💣 🔮 My Take: This is a time to be patient, cautious, and conservative—but ready to act when the opportunity hits. IN OTHER NEWS Architectural Home Styles That Command The Most Dollars. Scottsdale Is The fastest-growing wealth hub in the U.S. Inside Chris Evans' $7 Million L.A. Home—Now on the Market as the 'Captain America' Star Heads East. 🔎 Architect Al Beadle's First Home Is for Sale in Phoenix — and It's Hiding in Plain Sight. Copyright © 2025 Juan Pesqueira @ Attorneys Realty All rights reserved. EQUAL HOUSING OPPORTUNITY Our mailing address is: 7010 E Chauncey Lane Ste 110, Phoenix, AZ 85054 Want to change how you receive these emails? You can update your preferences or unsubscribe