Monday, June 30, 2025

Fit a Lock, Philippe Lafargue, ATC Update, Woodworking Myths & More

͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌

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Fit a Lock, Philippe Lafargue, ATC Update, Woodworking Myths & More

A quick look at all the stuff Lost Art Press published during the last seven days.

This week, Kale leaves on vacation (so you likely won't hear from them for a few weeks), and we have Anissa Kapsales and Owen Madden from Fine Woodworking in the shop starting tomorrow afternoon to shoot two upcoming articles…and I am nowhere near ready. So I'm keeping this short today! I still have one project to finish and parts to prep.

– Fitz

Lost Art Press Blog

Fitting the Lock – A Commentary on 'The Joiner and Cabinet Maker'

Chris was never taught how to install a lock – but the schoolbox instruction in "The Joiner and Cabinet Maker" changed that. In this excerpt, he shares the lesson with you.

Philippe Lafargue

We are sad to report the death of our friend Philippe Lafargue, who had been part of the Roubo translation team since its inception.

Special: 'Welsh Stick Chairs' & 'Good Work'

Get "Welsh Stick Chairs" and "Good Work" – for one special price. Together, they're just $ 49 – but only through August 7.

The American Peasant Substack

Burning Money Again – ATC Rejected, Delayed, Pulped

Had the publishing gods been smiling upon us, we'd right now be announcing the release of "The Anarchist's Tool Chest Revised Edition." But you know the saying: people plan, the gods laugh.

(Free for everyone)

Earlywood: How to Start a Woodworking Myth

Feel free to add to Chris's list of the (many) woodworking myths. (Or start your own – the key is to sound authoritative.)

(Free for everyone)

The Case for Pre-Industrial Design

There was quite the, uh, spirited discussion about Chris's take on contemporary furniture design on Sunday.

(For paid subscribers, with a free preview)

The Anarchist's Apprentice Substack

The Apprentice's Apprentice

Katherine jumped in saw first last week to help with the completion of four chairs for a commission – under the eye of Kale, not Chris.

(Free for everyone)

Never Sponsored Substack

Travisher Sharpening Tools

Our travishers get used (and sometimes abused) a lot, given the number of chairmaking students we've had during the last several years. So Chris gets a lot of practice keeping these tools in good trim. Here, he shares his method in both pictures and video.

(For paid subscribers, with a free preview)

On Instagram This Week

That bird is not going to be very comfortable to sit in….

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Where Phoenix Real Estate Is Headed Next: 🌍 2025 National Forecasts, 2nd Half Outlook

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Hope you're staying cool — and hydrated — out there. Phoenix isn't playing around this summer. It's so hot, I saw a lizard wearing sunscreen.

But while the heat outside is breaking thermometers, the real estate market is delivering a mixed bag: hot pockets of activity, some cooling trends, and signals you shouldn't ignore.

This month's update covers May's data (always a month behind), and I'm breaking it down by what matters most—from national forecasts to hyper-local condo trends, surging suburbs, and even the quiet debt buildup in commercial real estate.

Let's get into it:

Market Snapshot🎯May 2025

Where Phoenix is Headed Based on 🌍National 2025 Housing Market Forecasts — 2nd Half Edition

The second half of the year is here, and real estate experts are… all over the place. Some see price growth. Others predict small declines. Here's the breakdown:

🔢 National Market Quick Hits:

Home Prices

Cotality: +4.3%
Fannie Mae: +4.1%
NAR: +3.0%
MBA: +1.3%
Redfin: -1.0%
Zillow: -1.4%

Existing Home Sale Totals

NAR: 4.30 million
MBA: 4.26 million
Fannie Mae: 4.23 million
Zillow: 4.12 millionn

Mortgage Rates

MBA: 6.6%
NAR: 6.4%
Fannie Mae: 6.1% Total

Mortgage Originations

Fannie Mae: $1.99 trillion
MBA: $2.07 trillion

📍 Phoenix Snapshot:

Median price: ~$445K (flat to down slightly)
Inventory: Up 25% YoY
Days on Market: 45+
Price reductions: >35% of homes
Rent growth: Flat
Local rates: ~6.7%

📉 What I'm Seeing on the Ground:

Condos & townhomes: softening –1% to –3%
SF homes ($400K–$700K): flat to slight drop
Luxury ($1.5M+): holding steady in Paradise Valley & Arcadia
Rentals: cooling, especially short-term to long-term conversions

🔮 My Take:

"Trying to predict real estate? Nobody really knows—not even me. But from the data, boots-on-the-ground activity, and yes, ChatGPT's help—I'm not seeing a crash. Just a market catching its breath.

If you're buying, stick to your budget. If you're selling, price it right or sit. And if you find your perfect home? Don't overthink it. Real estate's always been a long-term game."

These Phoenix Suburbs Have Seen the Highest Growth in Renters

The old narrative that "cities are for renters, suburbs are for owners" is crumbling — and Metro Phoenix is a prime example. New data from Point2Homes, using U.S. Census numbers, shows an unmistakable shift: suburban renting is rising fast, and Phoenix's outer edges are heating up.

🔍 Suburbs on the Rise:

Glendale leads with renters making up 42.4% of households — just shy of renter-majority status.
Peoria added the most renters: 2,374 households over five years.
Goodyear followed closely with 1,687 new rental households.
Sun Lakes saw the fastest renter growth rate at 41.3%.
Eloy and Saddlebrooke also logged steep increases.

So why are suburbs becoming rental magnets?

📈 Key Drivers:

High home prices and interest rates are pushing affordability limits.
Renters want flexibility and more space — especially with remote work.
Boomers downsizing, younger generations delaying ownership.

💡 Investor Insight: This isn't just a trend — it's an opportunity. Build-to-rent communities, updated single-family homes, and small multifamily units in Peoria, Goodyear, and Glendale are primed for strong rental demand and long-term value. Fast-growing areas like Eloy and Sun Lakes offer additional upside for value-add plays.

Bottom Line: The Phoenix rental wave is expanding beyond city limits. Whether you're rebalancing a portfolio or considering your first suburban deal, now's the time to zoom out and take the burbs seriously.

🏗️ May's New Home Sales Slump: What It Signals for Housing Supply

New U.S. single-family home sales dropped sharply in May, falling 13.7% month-over-month to 623,000 units — a figure well below Wall Street's expectations and pre-pandemic norms. The reason? Persistently high mortgage rates hovering around 7% throughout the month kept many buyers on the sidelines.

📉 Key Takeaways:

The May sales pace was 6.3% lower than the same time last year.
The slowdown erased gains from earlier in the spring.
Homebuilders cite both affordability pressures and weakened consumer confidence.

🏘️ Inventory Surge:

There were 507,000 new homes for sale at the end of May.
That's a 9.8-month supply — the largest in nearly 3 years and a level not seen consistently since 2009 during the Great Recession.

💡 Investor Insight:This slowdown could create opportunity. More inventory means more negotiation power — especially in markets where prices haven't adjusted yet. But softening demand suggests caution for short-term flips or high-leverage plays.

📰 PHOENIX-AREA CONDO MARKET UPDATE
📅 May 2025 Edition

📊 Quick Snapshot (See Infographic)
The condo market across Greater Phoenix is steady, balanced, and full of opportunity. Whether you're selling, downsizing, investing, relocating from out of state, or buying for your student near ASU — now's the time to make your move smartly.

🔥 What's Happening by City:

📍Tempe

Inventory: 5.38 months (balanced)
Median Price: $387,000
Selling for: 97% of asking
Days on Market: 42

Tempe condos are moving fast, especially near ASU. If you're a parent planning for fall, or a buyer looking for a lifestyle shift, this market offers options — but not forever.

📍Scottsdale

Inventory: 5.98 months
Median Price: $600,000
Selling for: 97% of asking
Days on Market: 52

Scottsdale condos appeal to out-of-state buyers and downsizers looking for resort-style living. A stable, strong market with long-term value.

📍Phoenix

Inventory: 5.83 months
Median Price: $345,000
Selling for: 98% of asking
Days on Market: 50

Phoenix offers affordability, central access, and solid investment potential. A great spot for first-time buyers and anyone looking to own without overreaching.

📍Chandler (Bonus Market)

Inventory: 6.9 months
Median Price: $395,000
Selling for: 99% of asking
Days on Market: 51

Chandler is ideal for buyers who want a newer condo, good schools, and tech proximity. Quiet but competitive — a strong option for relocation or rightsizing.

🧭 My Advice:

✅ Buyers — You have time to breathe, but be ready to act on the right condo.
✅ Sellers — Price competitively and prep well. Homes are selling close to asking.
✅ Parents — Don't wait for dorm deadlines. Lock something in before the rush.
✅ Downsizers & Out-of-State Buyers — This is your window for a smoother, lower-stress move.

📌 Heads-up: Some condos are on leased land, others land-owned, and a few in retirement communities. That affects value, lending, and long-term goals. Reach out if you're unsure.

🏡 Arizona Manufactured/Mobile Home Market Trends Report – May 2025

While the spotlight stays on Phoenix skyscrapers and Scottsdale flips, Arizona's manufactured housing quietly delivers what smart investors crave: affordability, balance, and solid rental returns. Our May 2025 snapshot across the state highlights just how much potential is tucked inside this overlooked asset class.

🔍 Market Highlights by City:

Phoenix📦 Inventory: 8.74 months | ⏳ Days on Market: 50 | 💰 Sold Price: $174,000
💡 Insight: A balanced market with strong $1.5K/month rental demand to support cash flow.
Mesa📦 Inventory: 8.68 | ⏳ DOM: 80 | 💰 Sold Price: $105,000
💡 Insight: Slower pace creates space to negotiate. Attractive rent-to-price ratios.
Apache Junction📦 Inventory: 6.39 | ⏳ DOM: 67 | 💰 Sold Price: $102,500 💡 Insight: Tightest supply in the state — great for rental yield.
Glendale📦 Inventory: 10.55 | ⏳ DOM: 158 | 💰 Sold Price: $114,500
💡 Insight: High inventory = negotiation leverage. Still commanding solid prices.
Chandler📦 Inventory: 8.91 | ⏳ DOM: 53 | 💰 Sold Price: $176,250
💡 Insight: Competitive, quick-turn market with top-tier rent potential.
Tucson📦 Inventory: 7.3 | ⏳ DOM: 56 | 💰 Sold Price: $60,000
💡 Insight: Lowest barrier to entry in the state. Perfect for high cap-rate hunters.

📊 Why It Matters for InvestorsWith prices ranging from $60K to $176K, manufactured homes offer a lower-cost gateway into real estate without sacrificing rental performance. These aren't desperate sellers or overheated listings — they're steady, negotiable, and rent-ready.

🔥 Pro Tip: Target slower markets like Glendale or Mesa for value-add strategies. Extended days on market often reveal motivated sellers and room for creative deal structuring.

Final Word: Manufactured housing in Arizona isn't just affordable — it's strategic. As mainstream investors chase headlines, you have the chance to build quiet momentum in a space most overlook.

🧨Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Debit is Quietly Climbing — And that's a Warning Sign

While CRE deal volume slowed in Q1 2025, commercial mortgage debt still rose by $40.1B, hitting $4.7 trillion. That means owners aren't selling—they're refinancing, extending, or holding on, hoping the market turns.

In Phoenix, this could signal distress brewing quietly, especially in office and retail. If rates don't drop or fundamentals don't improve, things could get ugly fast.

⚠️ We've covered this before—remember the $384B debt time bomb? If you read my blog, don't say I didn't warn you.

👉 Read the full article: CRE Mortgage Debt Rises in Q1
👉 Missed the April warning? Here it is again 💣

🔮 My Take:

This is a time to be patient, cautious, and conservative—but ready to act when the opportunity hits.

IN OTHER NEWS

Architectural Home Styles That Command The Most Dollars.
Scottsdale Is The fastest-growing wealth hub in the U.S.
Inside Chris Evans' $7 Million L.A. Home—Now on the Market as the 'Captain America' Star Heads East.
🔎 Architect Al Beadle's First Home Is for Sale in Phoenix — and It's Hiding in Plain Sight.

Copyright © 2025 Juan Pesqueira @ Attorneys Realty All rights reserved.
EQUAL HOUSING OPPORTUNITY

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Wednesday, June 25, 2025

Special: 'Welsh Stick Chairs' & 'Good Work'

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Special: 'Welsh Stick Chairs' &
'Good Work'

Get two classic chairmaking books – "Welsh Stick Chairs" and "Good Work" – for one special price. Together, they're just $ 49 – but only through August 7. The regular price for both is $87 – you save 44 percent.

If you're wondering where stick chairs came from, these two books will tell you the whole amazing story – and get you started in building them.

Stick chairs have been around for centuries – but they've mostly been ignored by museums. In the 1990s, Welshman John Brown wrote and published the landmark book "Welsh Stick Chairs." This book inspired hundreds of people all over the world to begin researching and making these vernacular chairs.

One of those people who was inspired by "Welsh Stick Chairs" was Welshman Chris Williams. He worked with John Brown for more than a decade making these chairs. Through the years, John Brown's chairs became more wild and true to the old Welsh character, and Chris was there the whole time.

After John Brown died, Chris wrote the book "Good Work" about his mentor. This biography explores John Brown's creative genius and his tumultuous character. And it explains how John and Chris built these chairs almost entirely by hand.

There is no better place to learn about the spirit of these chairs and how they were made than with these two books. So we are offering them at a special price until August 7.

Technical Details

"Welsh Stick Chairs": Using first-edition examples of "Welsh Stick Chairs," we reset the entire book in the original font to ensure the text was crisp. We rescanned and processed the photos and drawings and cleaned them up. And we spent weeks researching the paper stock of the original to capture the same earthiness and perfection of the first edition. We also made a small but invisible improvement – we sewed the signatures together to ensure the book will last for lifetimes. The book is a softcover, covered in heavy card stock like the original. The book measures 7-1/4" x 9-5/8". Our version includes John Brown's original introduction to the book, plus the additional introduction he wrote for the third edition and an updated essay on John Brown by Nick Gibbs.

"Good Work": The 208-page full-color book is also filled with historical photographs (many never published before) and beautiful linocut illustrations by Molly Brown, one of JB's daughters. The book is printed on heavy coated paper with a matte finish to make it easy to read. The book's pages are sewn, glued and taped – then covered in heavy boards and cotton cloth – to create a book that will last for generations. And the whole package is wrapped in a durable tear-resistant laminated dust jacket, which features linocut illustrations by Molly Brown.

Both books are produced and printed in the United States.

Get your copies – at the special price – now!

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Monday, June 30, 2025