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 |  | Welcome to 2025! As we kick off the new year, we're taking a deep dive into what's shaping Arizona's real estate market. From December's market snapshot to the biggest commercial deals of 2024, we've got the insights you need. Are condos still hot? Is the market cooling or heating up? And could L.A.'s wildfires drive more buyers to Arizona? Let's break it all down.
👇 Read on for the latest trends and expert analysis! |
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|  | End of Year Market Snapshot🎯December 2024 |
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|  | A Blend of Optimism and Caution as We Enter the 2025Housing Market
As we enter 2025, housing market projections suggest around 4.22 million home sales, based on forecasts from 16 major financial institutions. Estimates range from 4.66M (PNC Bank) to 3.74M (Moody's), showing both cautious and optimistic outlooks.
Forecasts PNC Bank: 4.66M TD Bank: 4.6M NAR: 4.5M Bright MLS: 4.42M Fannie Mae: 4.25M MBA: 4.25M Zonda: 4.2M Bank of America: 4.2M HousingWire: 4.2M Wells Fargo: 4.19M Zillow: 4.16M Capital Economics: 4.12M Goldman Sachs: 4.09M Realtor.com: 4.07M Morgan Stanley: 3.8M Moody's: 3.74M
Historical Stats 2024: 4.15M 2023: 3.91M 2022: 4.19M 2021: 6.43M 2020: 6.47M 2019: 5.26M 2018: 5.15M 2017: 5.62M
While the market fluctuates, real estate remains a solid investment. Whether buying or selling, knowledge of your local market is key. Transactions happen in every cycle—the goal is to secure the best deal possible. |
|  | The Hottest Housing Markets, According to Phoenix REALTORS
As we kick off 2025, the Phoenix housing market showcases resilience and growth opportunities. While single-family home sales declined slightly by 0.4% in 2024, the median sales price rose by 4.3%, reaching $460,0001. New listings increased by 12.8%, offering more choices for buyers.
Top Housing Markets in Greater Phoenix: Central Glendale: Closed transactions rose by 50.8%. Midtown/Uptown Phoenix: Sales increased by 35.3%. West Deer Valley: Saw a 23.1% jump in closed transactions.
Emerging areas also showed price appreciation:
The inventory increased significantly, with a 37% higher number of homes available compared to the start of 2024. Notably, the Camelback West 85017 zip code showed a 120.8% increase in inventory. |
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|  | Housing Market Cools Down Over the Holidays
Mortgage applications dropped significantly in late December, according to HousingWire. Overall demand fell 21.9%, with refinancing plummeting 36% and purchase applications down 13%. Rising interest rates likely played a major role. This slowdown could signal a more cautious market in 2025, though the impact of interest rate fluctuations remains to be seen. This summary focuses on the key findings:
Significant drop in mortgage applications Refinancing and purchase applications both declined Rising interest rates are a major factor Potential for a more cautious market in 2025
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|  | 10 Biggest Commercial Real Estate Deals in Arizona in 2024
Arizona's commercial real estate market saw significant transactions last year. Notable deals include the Arizona Biltmore's sale for $705 million to an English real estate firm, and the sale of AVE Paradise Valley Apartments for $183 million, highlighting robust multifamily market activity. The largest metro Phoenix office sale since 2022 was 24th at Camelback II, while a $7 billion project, Halo Vista, is planned in Phoenix around the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company's facility.
For more details on these deals, visit AZ Big Media. |
|  | Key Commercial Real Estate Trends for 2025 The commercial real estate landscape is expected to undergo significant changes in 2025. According to the Wall Street Journal, several key trends will shape the industry: Office Market Stability: A 5% increase in office leasing volume is anticipated, driven by fewer new office buildings and a shift towards expansion. Rise of Tech Properties: Data centers, cold storage facilities, and battery plants are becoming more popular due to their importance for new technologies. Better Workplaces: Companies are enhancing offices to promote community and collaboration. Retail Rent Increases: Limited new retail construction will likely cause rents to rise. Changes in Life Sciences: Advances in technology and new medicines mean life sciences companies will need to reassess their space needs. Demand Near Borders: Increased demand for industrial buildings near the U.S.-Mexico border is expected due to trade policy changes. Managing Noise: Offices will focus on sound-proofing and private booths as more employees return to work. More Team Spaces: Companies are creating more collaborative workspaces.
These trends highlight the evolving nature of commercial real estate. For more details, visit the Wall Street Journal website. |
|  | Phoenix Metro Condo Market Recap & 2025 Outlook
As we close out the year, the Phoenix, Scottsdale, and Tempe condo markets are shifting, with rising inventory and longer selling times. Here's a quick breakdown:
Phoenix Condo MarketInventory: +121.13% YoY (6.28 months supply) Median Days on Market: 55 List to Sold Price: 97.9% Median Sold Price: $330,000
Takeaway: More inventory means buyers have options, while sellers must price competitively.
Scottsdale Condo MarketInventory: +94% YoY (6.79 months supply) Median Days on Market: 61 List to Sold Price: 96.8% Median Sold Price: $520,000
Takeaway: The market is balancing—sellers need realistic pricing and strong marketing.
Tempe Condo MarketInventory: +106.83% YoY (4.24 months supply) Median Days on Market: 59 List to Sold Price: 98% Median Sold Price: $380,000
Takeaway: Despite rising inventory, Tempe remains competitive for sellers. 2025 Market PredictionsBuyers gain leverage with more inventory and negotiation power. Sellers must price right to avoid long market times. Economic factors & interest rates will influence activity. New construction & investments will be worth watching.
PhxCondosForSale.com Take: The market is shifting toward buyers, but well-priced listings will still sell. Thinking of selling? Our listing fees start at 1.75%—let's talk strategy! |
|  | Will L.A. Fires Increase Inbound Migration to AZ?
Recent wildfires in Southern California have led to a surge in rental requests from Los Angeles residents looking to relocate to the Phoenix metro area. This increased demand, particularly for luxury homes, could boost the local housing market, potentially raising rents, home prices, and sales. Despite the current dip in tenant costs due to new apartment construction, a fresh influx of residents might strain the housing supply for existing Valley residents.
Phoenix's relatively affordable housing and strong job market make it an attractive option for those displaced by the fires. Median rent in Phoenix is significantly lower than in Los Angeles, adding to the appeal. As people move to the Valley, it's essential to monitor how this trend affects the local housing and rental markets. This article is from https://www.scottsdalerealtors.org/
My Take: I've noticed that the recent wildfires in Southern California are indeed prompting some residents to consider relocating to Arizona. The combination of Arizona's affordable housing, strong job market, and a safer environment makes it an attractive option for those looking to escape the fire-prone areas. With lower median rent and home prices compared to Los Angeles, Phoenix and its surrounding areas are becoming popular destinations for new residents seeking stability and growth opportunities. |
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