Monday, November 4, 2024

Leveling Up, New Books & Tools, & More

Leveling Up, New Books & Tools, & More

A quick look at all the stuff Lost Art Press published during the last seven days.

The editorial team is in the United Kingdom right now, so we're a bit behind on our usual post schedule (such as it is). We'll be back next week, so it will be back to normal (as much as it ever is!).


Lost Art Press Blog


Leveling Legs

There are about five or six ways Chris knows of to level the legs of a chair, and he's tried them all. This excerpt from "The Stick Chair Book" is the one he's found easiest to teach.


Updates on New Books, Reprints & Tools

We got notification that "Dutch Tool Chests" (by me!) shipped on Monday. I'll be signing copies as soon as I'm back, and we'll have those in the store shortly. Plus, we're finishing up work on the latest from George Walker and Jim Tolpin, "American Peasant" will soon be back in stock, Exeter hammer parts are on the works, and more.

The American Peasant Substack


Black & White Furniture Finishes

Chris has experimented with several techniques, including dyes and bleaches and other chemicals to make wood black and white. This entry is basically where he's ended up.

(Free for everyone)


The Frustrating Bias Against Strut-leg Chairs

Stretcher-less stick chairs – what we call "strut-leg" chairs – have survived just fine for centuries. Some of Chris's favorite Welsh chairs lack stretchers, including the first stick chair he built in 2003. Yet, few people want to make them.

(Free for everyone)


2 Questions for You

The most important lesson Chris has learned from lawyers deals with clients and customers. And that is: How do you start a relationship right, then keep it on track?

(Free for everyone)


Earlywood: I Love Difficult Teachers

This is a tricky topic to discuss. Good teaching can resemble abuse – at least from the outside. But Chris doesn't think that good teachers ever actually abuse their students. Instead, he's found that his best teachers were both scrupulously fair and uncompromising.

(Free for everyone)


The Anarchist's Compass No. 2

If you demand a discount…

(Free for everyone)



The Anarchist's Apprentice Substack


Wax-On, Wax-Off

It's been almost exactly one year since Chris plucked Kale from a bakery to mold them into a chair minion (Kale's words). Now, close to the anniversary of the first talk we ever had together in the bench room, Kale is in Wales: the Motherland.

(For paid subscribers, with a free preview)



Never Sponsored Substack


Saddling Tools for Beginning Chairmakers

With tools for saddling a chair seat, the problems are that (1) there are so many different kinds, and (2) some of them are hard to come by. Beginning chairmakers get especially frustrated by this – and with good reason.

(For paid subscribers, with a free preview)

On Instagram This Week

Chris helped 12 people make Welsh stick chairs in London. And we walked around the city – a lot (though not while teaching).


Fitz

Thursday, October 31, 2024

🐾 Pets Over People? Why Today’s Renters are Prioritizing Fido 🐶 Over Baby Olivia and Liam

Welcome to our October newsletter! As we dive into this month's market trends, we also want to acknowledge October as Breast Cancer 🎗️ Awareness Month. This is a meaningful time to honor survivors, support ongoing research, and raise awareness in our communities. Whether it's by sharing information, donating, or simply checking in on loved ones, every effort counts.


In market news, despite last month's 50-basis-point Fed rate cut, mortgage rates have actually climbed, reaching 7% as of this week. The housing market remains largely in a freeze: refinance and loan applications are down, sellers are pulling homes from the market, and sales activity is low—typical for this time of year.


The reports below cover September data (always running about a month behind). This season can still be a prime opportunity for buyers: new home builders are dropping prices, offering lower rates, and adding incentives. Builders are even boosting Realtor® commissions to attract buyers.


While the market remains challenging, with yearly sales projections tracking below 4 million, buyers may find new opportunities in this "frozen" market. Thanks for joining us as we navigate this unique landscape—and let's remember to show support for Breast Cancer Awareness this month.

Market Snapshot🎯September


August vs. September Market Update

  • Inventory: 13,657 → 14,715 (+1,058)

  • Homes Sold: 4,359 → 4,123 (-236)

  • Median $/SF: $266.12 → $266.45 (+$0.33)

  • Months of Supply: 3.13 → 3.57 (+0.44)

  • Median Days on Market: 50 → 49 (-1)


September saw higher inventory and months of supply, fewer sales, and a slight increase in price per square foot.

🐾 Pets Over People? Why Today's Renters are Prioritizing Fido Over Baby Olivia and Liam 👶


The rental market is getting wild—literally! A Point2 survey reveals renters are more worried about where their dog will poop than setting up a nursery. Renters are reshaping the market with wagging tails, not baby strollers.


1. Pets Are The New Babies

Forget planning for kids—69% of renters have pets, and "big backyard for Fido" is the top priority. 🐶


2. Skip the Renovations

Renters don't care about remodeling. Just give them space to decorate and they're happy. 🖼️


3. Essentials Are Non-Negotiable

No laundry, no deal! 68% of renters won't compromise on basic features like heating and appliances. 🔧


4. Gen Z Is Changing the Game

Gen Z is bypassing starter apartments and renting homes with space for pets and home gyms. 🏡💪


5. What's Next?

Landlords: Privacy, pet-friendly policies, and essentials are key to staying competitive in today's market.


For more insights, check out the Point2 study here!

Arizona's Most Expensive Zip Code Soars 222% Since Pre-COVID


In 2024, the luxury market showed signs of cautious recovery, with 67% of the nation's top zip codes experiencing price increases. Arizona's most expensive zip code, 85253 in Paradise Valley, saw a 16% rise in median sale prices, reaching $3.25M. This marks a 222% increase since pre-COVID and its highest ranking yet at #27 among the country's priciest zip codes.

Key highlights:

  • 85253 in Paradise Valley is now 222% pricier than its 2019 debut.

  • Other record-breaking states include Arizona, Florida, and New Jersey.


Read the full report here: Full Breakdown.

Arizona's Housing Market Returns to Pre-Pandemic Inventory Levels: What's Next?


Arizona's real estate market has reached a key milestone—inventory levels have bounced back to pre-pandemic numbers. According to ResiClub's September analysis, the state is one of seven that has achieved this, marking a new phase for both buyers and sellers. With more homes available and properties taking longer to sell, Arizona's housing market is stabilizing.


Inventory and Pricing: A New BalanceIn hotspots like Phoenix, Scottsdale, and Tucson, the rapid price growth driven by the Pandemic Housing Boom has softened. While increased inventory signals a cooling market, it also presents opportunities for buyers as competition decreases and negotiation power improves. Meanwhile, home sellers need to focus on competitive pricing as homes are staying on the market longer.


How the Numbers Stack Up
Here's a snapshot of Arizona's year-over-year inventory levels:

  • September 2017: 26,464 📉

  • September 2018: 24,289 📉

  • September 2019: 21,632 📉

  • September 2020: 11,582 📉 (Pandemic Housing Boom)

  • September 2021: 10,349 📉

  • September 2022: 23,726 📈 (mortgage rate shock)

  • September 2023: 15,383 📉

  • September 2024: 22,362 📈


This rebound in 2024 reflects a significant return to pre-pandemic inventory levels, suggesting a more balanced market for buyers and sellers.


What's Next? Looking ahead, Arizona could continue to see rising inventory and potential price adjustments. With mortgage rates fluctuating around 6.26%, buyers have a favorable window to enter the market. For sellers, working with an experienced real estate agent to navigate these shifts is crucial.

Breaking Down September 2024 Commercial Real Estate Insights from NAR: National Trends and Phoenix's Numbers.


The National Association of Realtors' Commercial Real Estate Market Insights for September 2024 reveals key national trends, but how does Phoenix stack up? Here's a snapshot of both.


National Market Trends

  • Office: Record-high vacancy rates persist, despite improved demand in major markets.

  • Multifamily: Strong demand, but vacancies remain near 8% due to new supply.

  • Retail: Limited space and construction are driving up prices.

  • Industrial: Vacancy rates rise to 6.6%, with slowed rent growth.

  • Hotel: Occupancy is still below pre-pandemic levels, but revenues have surpassed them.


How Phoenix Compares

  • Multifamily: Phoenix absorbed 18,319 units in Q3 2024—double from last year, driven by rising rental demand as home affordability tightens.

  • Industrial: Phoenix absorbed 13.79 million sq. ft. of industrial space, reflecting a slowdown from last year. However, interest rate cuts could reignite demand.


What's Changed Since Last Month?

  • Multifamily continues its upward surge, while industrial faces cooling demand.

  • Office space remains a challenge, but some national markets are showing leasing activity upticks—possibly a sign of future stabilization for Phoenix.


For those willing to take risks, Phoenix's office sector holds opportunity, while success in the industrial market requires a selective approach. Multifamily remains strong, with property condition being a key factor in investment decisions.

Tempe Named One of Fortune's Best Places to Retire Affordably!

Great news! Fortune has ranked Tempe, Arizona, #20 on its list of the best affordable places to retire. Here's why Tempe is an excellent choice for your golden years:


Rich Cultural Scene:
With Arizona State University nearby, enjoy year-round cultural events, lectures, and performances, plus exciting college sports.


Active Outdoor Lifestyle:
Tempe offers parks, lakes, hiking trails, and nearly 300 sunny days a year. Explore Tempe Town Lake, hike "A" Mountain, or enjoy the city's bike paths and golf courses.


Convenient Location:
Close to Phoenix and Sky Harbor Airport, with excellent healthcare facilities like Banner Desert Medical Center and Tempe St. Luke's Hospital.


Retirement-Friendly Taxes:
Arizona has a flat income tax rate of 2.5% and doesn't tax Social Security income. Low property taxes and no estate tax add to the appeal.


Real Estate Options:
From low-maintenance condos near ASU to spacious single-family homes and 55+ communities, there's something for everyone.


Market Snapshot:

  • Inventory: 4.92 months

  • 12-Month Change: +135.41%

  • Median Days on Market: 53 days

  • List to Sold Price: 97.6%

  • Median Sold Price: $473,000

Condo Market Update: Tempe, Phoenix, and Scottsdale (September 2024)
Brought to you by PhxCondosForSale.com


Tempe Condo Market:

  • Months Supply of Inventory: 5.06 (Aug: 3.94)

  • 12-Month Change in Inventory: +159.49% (Aug: +173.61%)

  • Median Days on Market: 47 days (Aug: 40)

  • List to Sold Price Percentage: 98.4% (Aug: 98.3%)

  • Median Sold Price: $353,363 (Aug: $327,500)


Phoenix Condo Market:

  • Months Supply of Inventory: 6.68 (Aug: 6.07)

  • 12-Month Change in Inventory: +190.43% (Aug: +212.89%)

  • Median Days on Market: 51 days (Aug: 54)

  • List to Sold Price Percentage: 97.5% (Aug: 97.8%)

  • Median Sold Price: $316,000 (Aug: $314,950)


Scottsdale Condo Market:

  • Months Supply of Inventory: 6.67 (Aug: 5.62)

  • 12-Month Change in Inventory: +131.6% (Aug: +123.02%)

  • Median Days on Market: 67 days (Aug: 65)

  • List to Sold Price Percentage: 97.3% (Aug: 97.5%)

  • Median Sold Price: $442,500 (Aug: $475,000)


As inventory rises across all cities, buyers gain more choices and negotiating power, while sellers should focus on competitive pricing.

Phoenix Office Market Update – Q3 2024


Key highlights from the JLL Phoenix Office Market Dynamics report:

  • Vacancy rate decreased slightly to 25.1%, the first decline since Q4 2019.

  • Office inventory reduced due to property conversions and lower construction.

  • Sublease vacancy rates improved, dropping to 5.0%.

  • Direct asking rents increased 3.1% year-to-date, driven by demand for amenity-rich spaces.

  • Federal Reserve rate cuts expected to further ease market stress and support stabilization.


Source: JLL Phoenix Office Market Dynamics, Q3 2024

IN OTHER NEWS

Monday, October 28, 2024

Mondays Aren't So Bad...

Mondays Aren't So Bad &

A quick look at all the stuff Lost Art Press published during the last seven days.

While Chris and Megan are off teaching in London, I'm left on my own at Willard to run amok. Just kidding – I have plenty to keep me busy in their absence including progress on my second apprenticeship chair. Oh, and give Wally pets, lots of those. In case you missed last week, here's the short of it.  


Lost Art Press Blog


Tongue & Groove Planes

An excerpt from "American Peasant"; Chris writes about the history of tongue and groove planes and shares what tool he used when building furniture for "American Peasant."


John Porritt: Details of His Work

An intimate look at several of John Porritt's chairs that were present at his recent stick chair talk in Austerlitz, New York. Why does John sometimes use a doubler to bridge a long scarf joint? And why does he sometimes use a half-lap in his armbows? It's all here, plus a couple Welsh antiques too.  


FAQ: 'Will my Local Retailer Carry this New Book?'

It's a valid question to ask and to be frank, we don't know. Here, Chris explains why.


The American Peasant Substack


Why We Make the Exeter Hammer

A self-explanatory title but also more. Chris tells the agonizing story of how our Exeter hammers went from a thought to a tangible product over the course of 3 years.

(Free for everyone)


Earlywood: Take My Advice, I'm Not Using It

What does it really take to be a full-time furniture maker? Grab a pen and paper and take note – I know I sure did.

(Free for everyone)


The Anarchist's Compass No. 1

"You want to hear the craziest publishing story ever?" Spoiler: You WILL feel something.

(Free for everyone)


The Anarchist's Apprentice Substack


I Do Like Mondays

Bending red oak, how hard could it be? I write about the trials and tribulations of my first experience bending armbows.

(For paid subscribers, with a free preview)


The Toolmaker's Apprentice?

Turns out, there's a lot of overlap between toolmaking and chairmaking; Chris explains.

(For paid subscribers, with a free preview)


Never Sponsored Substack


The Lie-Nielsen Honing Guide – Worth it

A well-made honing-guide, how imperative could it be? Probably more than you think. Chris gives his honest opinion on the Lie-Nielsen honing guide.

(For paid subscribers, with a free preview)


Tool Cases for Airplane Travel

Neither Megan or Chris are strangers to traveling with tools. Here, they spill the beans on their set-up and provide other helpful tips.

(For paid subscribers, with a free preview)

On Instagram This Week

Chris posts his most recent build; A curved-back armchair made from American elm and finished with a two-part wood bleach.

Leveling Up, New Books & Tools, & More

View this email in your browser Leveling Up, New Books & Tools, & More A quick look at all the stuff Lost Art Press publis...