Wax, Chairmaking Qs& As, the 1st B.S. Chair & More!

View this email in your browser Wax, Chair Questions (Among Others), A Chair from Home Center Materials & More A quick look at all the stuff Lost Art Press published during the last seven days. On my bench right now is a pile of lumber that has to quickly become a blanket chest … so, I'm sorry for today's lack of pith (or lack of even trying for it!), but I must get back to it post haste. Here's a look at the last week's worth of blogs and substacks. – Fitz Lost Art Press Blog How We Make Our Soft Wax – Video Take a look at how easy it is to make soft wax-making in "A Wax Story" – a video from Chris and Kale. How to Find Your Digital Products Purchases If you are a fan of our digital products (pdfs, videos, plans, etc) then you know that they are sent to you as a link via email after checkout. But did you know that you can also access any of your digital purchases by logging into your Lost Art Press account? Here's how. Open Wire Qs & As We answered a lot of questions…a lot of chair questions in particular last Saturday. (OK – I didn't answer many chair questions…but I answered other questions.) Got a question? Maybe it was covered – have a look! Stick Chair & DTC Kits from Alexander Bros. Don't let lack of wood hold you back from building a stick chair or Dutch tool Chest. Alexander Brothers offers nice kits for both. The American Peasant Substack Machine It & Schnell! Schnell! Schnell! If you want to make your handplaning and edge-jointing chores easier, here are a couple guidelines that have saved us hours of headaches. (Free for everyone) Earlywood: Against Perfection, Precision or Accuracy Here's how I think about perfection: We now have the technology to abolish time zones. Each person's phone could be set to a perfect local time where noon is always perfect noon when the sun is right overhead. And midnight is perfect midnight. This sort of accuracy is, however, incredibly stupid. (Free for everyone) The Plywood Armbow & Other Blasphemies This week I designed seven chairs and built four – all failures for one reason or another. (For paid subscribers, with a free preview) About the Bulls%!t Chair The comb-back chair I designed for "Build a Chair from Bullshit," doesn't share DNA with any of my previous chairs. It is from a different place and time. Here's the story behind it. (Free for everyone) The Anarchist's Apprentice Substack Drowning Your Puppies Kale sold their first chair last week, so the second chair of the apprenticeship (shown above) is done. Two more chairs to go. (For paid subscribers, with a free preview) Dead Ends As much as Kale thought learning the ins and outs of a block plane would help with their woodworking journey, it turns out broader themes have have been of more use – at least for now. (For paid subscribers, with a free preview) Never Sponsored Substack Bougie Backsaws Chris and I share our thoughts on high-end handsaws. (If you'd told me 20 years ago I'd spend a rent payment on a saw, I'd have scoffed, laughed, then laughed some more. And said you were crazy.) (For paid subscribers, with a free preview) On Instagram This Week Worst band picture ever? Nope – that's our Covington crew. Plus a new chair, some new work on the Anthe storefront, and more. Visit Lost Art Press Copyright (C) 2024 Lost Art Press. All rights reserved. You are receiving this email because you subscribed to the Lost Art Press blog. Welcome! We try our best to make this a good experience for both of us... Our mailing address is: Lost Art Press 407 Madison Ave Covington, KY 41011-1519 USA Want to change how you receive these emails? You can update your preferences or unsubscribe

LAP Open Wire & Last Day for Timely Delivery of Holiday Orders

View this email in your browser Open Wire Saturday, Dec. 14 Chris and I are holding the last Open Wire of 2024 tomorrow (Saturday, Dec. 14) – so post your woodworking questions and comments in tomorrow's Open Wire blog post between 7:30 a.m. and 4:50 pm., and we will do our best to answer them in a timely manner, in between sessions at our workbenches. Chris will be working on his chair(s) for his forthcoming book (the working title is "Build a Chair from B.S."), and I'll be frantically cutting dovetails for my reproduction blanket chest (also from B.S. come to think of it – the sweetgum shown above and SYP, because that's what was used in the original – oof!) for the 27th Working Wood in the 18th Century Conference at Colonial Williamsburg. See inside the book Want Those Gifts to Arrive in Time? Order by Sunday Night Sunday, Dec. 15, is the last day to place an order with Lost Art Press and be assured that it will arrive in time for Christmas, the first day of Hanukkah and Kwanzaa. (I think it would also make it in time for Festivus…but no promises there.) Our storefront will be open during weekdays up until Dec. 24. We are currently setting up the new storefront at 407 Madison Ave. Until that comes on line, we have stock available at our old location, 837 Willard St. in Covington, Kentucky. – Fitz Follow Us Copyright (C) 2024 Lost Art Press. All rights reserved. You are receiving this email because you subscribed to the Lost Art Press blog. Welcome! We try our best to make this a good experience for both of us... Our mailing address is: Lost Art Press 407 Madison Ave Covington, KY 41011-1519 USA Want to change how you receive these emails? You can update your preferences or unsubscribe

Dubuque Bar Clamps Review, Last Chance for Free PDF, Annual Gift Guide & more!

View this email in your browser Clamp Review, Home Center Chair Legs & More A quick look at all the stuff Lost Art Press published during the last seven days. Chris is on sabbatical this month to work on his new book (the working title is "Chairs from B.S." – in short, building chairs when you don't have access to a good lumberyard), so I'm afraid you'll have to put up with me (Megan) in the Monday update probably through the end of December. (Mondays are the busy day at the warehouse as we catch up on weekend orders, so Kale is usually busy with shipping on Mondays.) Lost Art Press Blog A Collection of Mid-18th-century French Tools Check out this cool collection of old tool images that Suzanne Ellison (aka the Saucy Indexer) dug up from the Bibliothèque et Archives nationales du Québec – they predate Roubo! Annual Anarchist's Gift Guide We've been posting Woodworker gift suggestions big and small, inexpensive and, er, not, for the last week…and over the previous I don't know how many years. The link in this headline will take you to the gift guide category on our blog, so you can see them all. Last Call for 'Dutch Tool Chests' Free PDF Order "Dutch Tool Chests" (by me!) by 11:59 p.m. Wednesday, Dec. 11, to get a free pdf with your book order. Until then, the book and pdf is $39. At midnight on Wednesday, the pdf will cost $9.75 extra if ordered with the printed book. How Chris Came to Love Campaign Furniture "Like a dormant case of malaria, my fevered love for campaign furniture began many years ago without my knowledge – probably during some hot Connecticut summer." The American Peasant Substack The Legerdemain System "There has to be a special word for this sort of Devilish Device. Oh yes, I forgot. That word is 'Omnijig.'" (For paid subscribers, with a free preview) Update on the Chair Legs "After some helpful comments on yesterday's entry on home center chair legs, I returned to the home center to check out the home center's oak closet rods and the replacement wheelbarrow handles. Could these be chair legs?" (Free for everyone) Earlywood: Tools Are a Burden "Sometime in the late 1990s I had three full sets of chisels – Marples Blue Chips, Ashley Iles and some fine blue-steel Japanese chisels. But instead of enjoying the fact that I had more chisels than my father, grandfather or uncle, I was grumpy." The Anarchist's Apprentice Substack Pathfinding & Breadcrumbs "Step No. 1 when teaching a woodworking apprentice: The teacher must accept they are inadequate for the task. The craft is too vast. Their experience in it (no matter how much they have) is too small. As a result, apprentices need more than one teacher. About a dozen are required – at least." – Chris (For paid subscribers, with a free preview) A Challenge a Day "…I've done a lot of growing that I'm proud of during my time (almost a year now) at Lost Art Press. But there is one thing that I've struggled with since the beginning of my woodworking journey and continue to struggle with today. "That thing is speed." – Kale (For paid subscribers, with a free preview) Never Sponsored Substack Dubuque Bar Clamps for Furniture Work "The Dubuques are perfectly suited for furniture work, are incredibly lightweight and are made in Iowa by a family run business. Oh, and I think the price is a steal for the quality." (For paid subscribers, with a free preview – though the above is a pretty good hint at the conclusion…) On Instagram This Week Chris posted Chair 26 for the year, as well as a nice band saw buy. Visit Lost Art Press Copyright (C) 2024 Lost Art Press. All rights reserved. You are receiving this email because you subscribed to the Lost Art Press blog. Welcome! We try our best to make this a good experience for both of us... Our mailing address is: Lost Art Press 407 Madison Ave Covington, KY 41011-1519 USA Want to change how you receive these emails? You can update your preferences or unsubscribe

Anarchist's Gift Guide, Storefront Update, Holiday Shipping Deadlines

View this email in your browser Anarchist's Gift Guide, New Storefront Update and Holiday Shipping Deadlines A quick look at all the stuff Lost Art Press published during the last seven days. We are sitting out the insane holiday season and don't have any special promotions, sales or bundles to peddle. Instead, we are working on restoring our old factory building (more on that below) and keeping Exeter hammers in stock. If that's not strange enough, I'm taking a sabbatical this month to finish writing a new book with a naughty title. — Christopher Schwarz Lost Art Press Blog Workbenches: 16th-18th Centuries Researcher Suzanne Ellison takes us down an interesting historical path on workbenches that uses old paintings to trace how they developed. After reading this entry, you'll never look at liturgical paintings the same again. The 2024 Anarchist's Gift Guide We are in the middle of posting daily gift guide entries. So be sure to check back this week for new entries. This is the gift guide you can trust. Nothing is sponsored. It's all stuff that we use and recommend from our workshop. This year, I've added a couple clothing entries, including my favorite U.S.-made blue-jeans. Last Day to Order for Christmas Delivery: Dec. 15 If you are buying a Lost Art Press book or tool for someone, you have until Dec. 15 to place the order and be assured that it will arrive before Christmas. So get clicking. Anthe Update: New Storefront & Offices We are on the verge of moving our storefront and offices to 407 Madison Ave. in Covington, so we will have (almost) all operations in one location. We'll have a dedicated storefront to visit, plus more room for tool assembly and designing books. The American Peasant Substack Taking a Sabbatical For most of December, you won't be hearing much from me (this is Chris writing). I'm taking the month to complete a book that has been dogging me for seven years. Details are on the substack. (For paid subscribers, with a free preview) Earlywood: I'm Thinking I'm Overthinking A reminder: Sometimes the obstacle to learning a new skill is that you have read too much about it and haven't given it a go. What if you did it the other way around? I tried this as an experiment with my daughter Katherine. (Free for everyone) The Anarchist's Apprentice Substack It's All an Experiment This isn't a production shop. So learning how to crank out the work is tough because we are always trying out new things. Almost every day. In this entry we discuss using heating pads to bend wood and bleaching oak with different chemicals. (Free for everyone) Knowing When to Say No Kale recounts becoming lost after leaving the National Park Service, and how a wad of floating bandages got them on the right path. A fantastically written piece. (For paid subscribers, with a free preview) Never Sponsored Substack The Anarchist's Gift Guide – in Full Paid subscribers get the entire gift guide in one big swoop. If you are a paid subscriber, click here to see the whole thing. (Free paid subscribers) On Instagram This Week We've been filming a new video on making a stick chair with green wood starring Rudy Everts. It's a completely different approach to how we build chairs – and fun. Visit Lost Art Press Copyright (C) 2024 Lost Art Press. All rights reserved. You are receiving this email because you subscribed to the Lost Art Press blog. Welcome! We try our best to make this a good experience for both of us... Our mailing address is: Lost Art Press 407 Madison Ave Covington, KY 41011-1519 USA Want to change how you receive these emails? You can update your preferences or unsubscribe

2025 Real Estate Outlook: Trends, Insights, and Why Phoenix Shines

View this email in your browser I hope you enjoyed a fantastic Thanksgiving filled with gratitude, great food, and even better company! As we wrap up 2024 and look ahead, the real estate world is buzzing with forecasts for 2025. Here's what the experts are predicting: 2025 Housing Market Forecast A variety of agencies and firms have shared their insights, anticipating a 2.6% average rise in home prices and approximately 4.47 million home sales. Here's how some top names stack up: Home Prices Goldman Sachs: +4.4% Wells Fargo: +4.3% Housingwire: +3.5% Pulsenomics Survey: +3.2% Fannie Mae: +3% Morgan Stanley: +3% MBA: +2.9% Zelman & Associates: +2.3% Corelogic: +2.3% Zillow: +2.3% Home Sales Fannie Mae: 4.5 million MBA: 4.3 million Goldman Sachs: 4.2 million Housingwire: 4.2 million NAR: 4 million This year's sales pace of 4 million marks the slowest since the 2008 financial crisis. While next year's projections suggest a 5% increase, sales will remain below historical norms, which have averaged 5.15 million annually over the last 20 years. What's Driving the Market? Inventory Shortages: 2024's tight inventory has been a major challenge, but HousingWire predicts a 13% increase in active listings, reaching 720,000 by the end of next year. No Crash Ahead: Despite a slower-than-usual recovery, experts agree a housing crash is unlikely in 2025. As always, forecasts aren't set in stone, but they provide valuable insights to help us prepare and strategize. Market Snapshot🎯October 2024 Early Forecast: Home Sales and Mortgage Rates Show Promise for 2025-2026 NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun projects a promising outlook for the housing market, predicting a 9% rise in home sales for 2025 and a 13% boost in 2026. Mortgage rates are also expected to stabilize around 6%, providing some relief to buyers who've faced recent rate hikes. Yun highlights that homeownership remains a major wealth-building tool, with homeowners' net worth currently averaging $415,000 compared to $10,000 for renters. He notes that growing job opportunities and increased housing supply should help more people enter the market, despite persistent affordability challenges. However, as with any forecast, caution is key. Just last year, Yun's predictions for 2024 anticipated lower rates and higher sales, which didn't materialize due to unexpected inflation spikes. This is why we say forecasts serve as a guide, not a guarantee—use them to set expectations, but always be ready to adjust as the market unfolds. The Evolving American Dream: Why Condos Are the Future of Homeownership. As home prices continue to rise, condos are becoming an attractive option for aspiring homeowners in Arizona. In urban hotspots like Phoenix, Scottsdale, and Tempe, condos offer a more affordable entry into homeownership, with the added perks of low maintenance, vibrant city living, and significant savings compared to single-family homes. For many, including me, a condo serves as the perfect starting point. My first real estate purchase was a condo in Scottsdale, which I chose for its affordability and urban lifestyle. Over time, I was able to sell that condo and upgrade to a single-family home in Tempe. This journey illustrates how a condo can be a stepping stone, providing a foothold in the market and building equity toward future dreams. Whether you're looking to live at the heart of the city or enjoy the convenience of an HOA that handles exterior maintenance, condos are making the American Dream more accessible and achievable. You can read the full blog post here. Fannie Mae Predicts Mortgage Rate Surge to Keep Home Sales Near Historic Lows Through 2025 Market Outlook: Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group has revised its forecast for existing home sales, now expecting only a 4% rise in 2025 from a nearly 30-year low in 2024. This downward revision is due to significant increases in mortgage rates and other long-duration bonds. Mortgage Rates: The ESR Group previously anticipated mortgage rates to dip below 6% in early 2025, but now expects rates to end 2025 at 6.3% and remain above 6% through 2026. Sales Projections: Despite the challenging environment, the ESR Group predicts a 17% improvement in existing home sales in 2026 as affordability conditions improve and pent-up demand materializes. New home sales are also expected to improve in both 2025 and 2026, driven by homebuilders offering incentives. Economic Growth: The ESR Group's economic growth outlook remains stable, with minor upward revisions to near-term growth in personal consumption. The 2026 GDP forecast sees the economy growing near its long-run trend rate of about 2.2%. Inflation: Core inflation is expected to remain elevated in the near term but is projected to return to the Federal Reserve's 2% target by the second quarter of 2026. Lower oil prices and a softer global demand outlook are expected to keep topline inflation measures below core inflation through 2025. Key Takeaway: The higher mortgage rate environment is likely to strengthen the ongoing lock-in effect, keeping inventories of homes added to the market and sales of existing homes subdued through next year. Affordability will remain the primary constraint on housing activity through the forecast horizon. October Phoenix CRE Update: Strong Multifamily Demand, Industrial Potential, and a Cautious Recovery Amid Interest Rate Cuts The latest National Association of Realtors CRE insights paint a cautiously optimistic picture for Phoenix's commercial real estate market. With the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts, there's hope for a more favorable market moving forward. Multifamily Sector: Strong demand continues, with significant absorption and stable rent growth in Phoenix. Industrial Sector: While growth has slowed, vacancy rates are rising, and the demand for industrial space could increase as projects previously put on hold resume. Overall, the Phoenix CRE market is adapting, with opportunities in both the multifamily and industrial sectors. As interest rates continue to ease, expect a cautious recovery with growth potential in these key areas. Home Sales Heat Up: A Closer Look at October's Market Source. Redfin October brought some surprising news for the housing market! Existing home sales experienced a significant surge, jumping 1.6% month-over-month, marking the strongest monthly growth since January 2022. This momentum continued with a year-over-year increase of 1.7%, the first annual uptick since November 2021. Key Takeaways from October: Total Home Sales: Both existing and newly built homes saw a combined 1.6% MoM and 3.4% YoY increase, reaching an 18-month high. Median Home Sale Price: Up 5.2% YoY to $435,313, the largest annual gain in half a year. Pending Sales: Decreased 1.1% MoM on a seasonally adjusted basis. Buyer Demand: Homebuyer service requests on Redfin's platform increased by 25% YoY, the highest since the 2022 downturn. What Does This Mean? While the recent uptick in sales is encouraging, the decline in pending sales raises some concerns. The spike in mortgage rates last month likely eroded much of the buying power gained over the summer. With mortgage rate volatility expected to continue due to the evolving economic landscape, it's uncertain whether the increased buyer demand will sustain. As we navigate this dynamic market, it's crucial to stay informed and adapt to changing conditions. We'll continue to monitor the market closely and provide you with the latest insights. Phoenix Condo Market Update: Balancing Inventory and Fast Sales in October 2024 The latest condo market trends are in, and there's plenty to talk about. Whether you're buying, selling, or just curious, here's a snapshot of what's happening across Phoenix, Scottsdale, and Tempe. 📍 Phoenix Condo Market Inventory Surge: Months Supply of Inventory is up to 7.21, a 158.42% increase over the past year. Fast Sales: Homes are selling in just 59 days! Strong Prices: List-to-Sold Price Ratio is 98.2%, showing homes are selling close to asking price. Median Price: $325,000 — balanced and affordable. ✨ Balanced market = opportunities for both buyers and sellers! 📍 Scottsdale Condo Market Balanced Inventory: Months Supply of Inventory is 6.93, up by 109.37%. Speedy Sales: Homes are moving in just 49 days. Competitive Offers: List-to-Sold Price Ratio is 97.5%. Higher Price Point: Median Sold Price is $468,000. ✨ Scottsdale remains a fast-paced, high-value market for those ready to act. 📍 Tempe Condo Market Slightly Tighter Supply: Months Supply of Inventory at 5.29 (up 133.04%). Quick Turnover: Median Days on Market is 55 days. Top Dollar Sales: List-to-Sold Price Ratio leads the region at 98.8%! Median Price: $370,000 — a solid mid-range value. ✨ A great balance of affordability and competitiveness. What Does This Mean for You? 🏡 For Buyers: More inventory means more options! Act quickly to secure your dream condo. 💰 For Sellers: Homes are selling fast and close to asking price — a strong time to list. Brought to you by PhxCondosForSale.com 🏡 Why Phoenix is Perfect for Your Second Home Did you know Phoenix is one of the top spots for second homes? With 65,241 properties, Maricopa County ranks #4 in the U.S. for seasonal living. Here's why: ☀️ Year-Round Sunshine: 300+ sunny days a year make it the ultimate escape from winter chills. 🎯 Adventure & Relaxation: Golf, hiking, fine dining, and spa days await. Try "A" Mountain for a quick hike! 🎲 Prime Location: Vegas is just 4 hours away, along with easy access to Sedona and Flagstaff. 💼 Smart Investment: Phoenix homes appreciate quickly, and demand is high for rentals from tourists and ASU students. Plus, there are potential tax benefits! You can read the full post titled "The Allure of a Second Home in Phoenix: Why Maricopa County Ranks Among the Best" here. IN OTHER NEWS HousingWire Credit data shows: There's no housing crash coming. 20% of NFL fans say team loyalty affects their home search 1 in 3 U.S. adults ages 18 to 34 live in their parents' home Some More Condos Coming to Old Town Scottsdale Copyright © 2024 Juan Pesqueira @ Attorneys Realty All rights reserved. EQUAL HOUSING OPPORTUNITY Our mailing address is: 7010 E Chauncey Lane Ste 110, Phoenix, AZ 85054 Want to change how you receive these emails? You can update your preferences or unsubscribe