Monday, September 30, 2024

Fed Rate Cut, Fannie Mae Projections, and Housing Market Outlook!

Big news from the Fed this past week—interest rates are dropping! On Wednesday 9/18, Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced a 0.50% rate cut, with more cuts likely before the year ends. Naturally, buyers and sellers are wondering: What does this mean for the housing market?


Let's dive in:


Instant Reactions: Fed Rate Cut, Fannie Mae Projections, and the Housing Market Outlook:


Fed Chair Jerome Powell discusses rate cuts and future monetary policy changes.

"The Housing market, its hard to game that out. The housing market is, in part, frozen because of lock-in, lower rates, people don't want to sell their home because they have very low mortgage, and it would be quite expensive to refinance." You can read full quote on AZREi.


With mortgage rates expected to drop significantly by year-end, we could see rates as low as 6.0%—and possibly 5.5% by 2025. Moody's chief economist, Mark Zandi, expects buyers to benefit from more affordable payments, but it's not all good news. Fannie Mae forecasts home sales will hit historic lows, with 2024 shaping up to be the toughest year for sales since 1995.


"NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun comments on the potential impact of rate cuts on home sales."

"The Feds half-point cut decision is the beginning of six to eight rounds of further rate cuts well into 2025. The very next cut will occur after the presidential election. The justification is cooling inflation in recent months and lighter job gains."


"Mortgage rates have already anticipated the feds likely path. That is why the 30-year rate has fallen by 150 basis points from earlier in the year to today. Any further decline in mortgage rates will be minimal." You can read full quote on AZREi.



So, what does this mean for you as a buyer or seller? Keep reading to find out how these changes could impact your next move in real estate.

Market Snapshot🎯August


Vs July

  • Inventory: 13,657 homes (+743 from July)

  • Sold: 4,359 homes (-406)

  • Median $/SF: $266.12 (-$1.29)

  • Months of Supply: 3.13 (+0.42)

  • Median Days on Market: 50 days (+3)

Head Start: Seize the Best Time of Year to Buy a Home or Condo: Now's Your Chance!


As we move into the fourth quarter of 2024, the Phoenix and Scottsdale markets present unique opportunities for homebuyers. Recent Fed rate cuts have brought mortgage rates down to around 6.2%, with the possibility of dipping below 6% by year-end. This shift, combined with motivated sellers eager to close deals for tax reasons, creates a perfect storm for buyers looking to snag a great deal. Builders are also pushing hard to offload inventory, offering huge discounts and mortgage rates as low as 4.99% on already built homes, making this a prime time for buying new construction.


Fewer buyers in the market during the holiday season mean less competition, giving you more leverage to negotiate favorable terms. While foreclosures in Maricopa County remain low, waiting for a market crash isn't the best strategy—deals are already happening now. With the right agent, you can navigate these unique market conditions and potentially score one of the best deals of the year. Whether you're looking at resale homes, condos, or taking advantage of builder incentives, don't wait for the new year to make your move—reach out today, and let's find you that perfect home for the holidays! Read the full post on AZREi!

60% of Arizona's Foreign Buyers Are from Canada, Eh! 🇨🇦


O Canada! The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) just released its 2024 report on international real estate transactions, and one stat stands out: 60% of Arizona's foreign buyers were from Canada. Eh, no kidding!

Key Highlights:

  • Foreign buyers purchased 54,300 homes in the U.S. from April 2023 to March 2024, contributing $42 billion to the market.

  • Arizona ranked as the 4th most popular state for foreign buyers, with 60% of them coming from Canada.

  • Canada, China, Mexico, and India topped the list of foreign buyers.


Arizona's sunny weather, affordability, and vibrant communities make it a top destination, especially for Canadians looking for second homes or winter getaways.


Want the full scoop? Read the full report on AZREi!

Arizona Foreclosure Auctions Surge While National Trends Wobble


The national real estate auction market is showing signs of cooling, with fewer buyers bidding on distressed properties like foreclosures and REOs due to an influx of regular homes for sale in cities like Miami and Denver. This has widened the gap between what buyers are willing to pay and what sellers are asking—a sign of growing market uncertainty. With a dip in demand and a cautious approach from investors, price growth in these markets could slow down or even decline.


Meanwhile, Arizona's foreclosure auction market is defying national trends, with a 31% increase in activity and a 14% rise in average property prices in the second quarter of 2024. Unlike other states, Arizona still sees strong demand for distressed properties, with buyers willing to pay a premium for limited inventory. This resilience could keep Arizona's market on a different path, even as national trends hint at a broader slowdown. For Arizonans, staying informed on both local and national market shifts is key to navigating this ever-changing landscape. Read the full report on AZREi!

Phoenix CRE Trends: End of 2024 Insights

As we head into the final stretch of 2024, the Greater Phoenix commercial real estate market is evolving rapidly. Here are some key highlights:

  • Medical Office: Phoenix leads the nation in medical office space growth, with over 517,000 sq. ft. leased in 2023. Demand is booming in areas like Queen Creek and North Phoenix due to population growth and the need for healthcare facilities.

  • Office Space: Companies are opting for high-quality, amenity-rich office spaces in Tempe and Scottsdale, while Class B and C buildings face vacancies unless repurposed.

  • Multifamily: While the multifamily sector has cooled, Phoenix still absorbed 20,000 units this year, ranking in the top three U.S. markets for permits.

  • Retail & Industrial: Retail continues to evolve, with drive-thru options becoming key post-pandemic. In industrial, power supply is now as critical as parking for businesses.


Want more details? Read the full update at AZREi!

Top Arizona Cities for Gen X Retirement: Gilbert, Scottsdale, Chandler, and Peoria


As Gen X inches closer to retirement, Arizona is emerging as a top destination, offering a mix of affordability, safety, and community. According to a study by ChamberofCommerce.org, four Arizona cities rank among the best for Gen X retirees.

  • Gilbert, ranked 5th nationally, boasts a blend of affordability, safety, and a strong community vibe.

  • Scottsdale, known for its luxury and excellent healthcare, offers a high median household income and a vibrant social scene.

  • Chandler combines suburban comfort with urban amenities, providing a cost-friendly environment with a strong sense of community.

  • Peoria, with its small-town charm and the lowest median home prices among the four, offers affordable living and easy access to outdoor activities like boating and hiking at Lake Pleasant.


Arizona's appeal lies in its warm weather, active communities, and a range of lifestyle options for every type of retiree. Whether you're drawn to the luxury of Scottsdale, the affordability of Peoria, or the convenience of Chandler, these cities offer Gen Xers a chance to find the perfect balance for their golden years. If you're exploring retirement destinations, Arizona's diverse options make it a standout choice. So, which Arizona city would you choose for your retirement? Let me know in the comments and follow this blog for more insights in Arizona living! Read the full report on AZREi.

Current Scottsdale, Phoenix & Tempe Condo Market Report for August 2024: Shifting Toward Buyers 🛒🛍️


Welcome to the August 2024 Condo Market Report for Scottsdale, Phoenix, and Tempe. Here's what you need to know:


Scottsdale Market:

  • Months' Supply: 5.62 (Balanced)

  • Inventory: +123.02% YoY

  • Median Days on Market: 65

  • Median Sold Price: $475,000

  • Key Insight: More inventory is giving buyers more options.


Phoenix Market:

  • Months' Supply: 6.07 (Leaning Buyer's Market)

  • Inventory: +212.89% YoY

  • Median Days on Market: 54

  • Median Sold Price: $314,950

  • Key Insight: Fast-rising inventory offers great deals for buyers.


Tempe Market:

  • Months' Supply: 3.94 (Balanced)

  • Inventory: +173.61% YoY

  • Median Days on Market: 40

  • Median Sold Price: $327,500

  • Key Insight: A balanced market but more opportunities for buyers soon.


Final Thoughts: Scottsdale is balanced, Phoenix is moving toward a buyer's market, and Tempe remains steady. Now's a great time to buy or sell. Contact PhxCondosForSale.com for expert advice, with commission rates starting at just 1.5%! Read the full report on AZREi.

First Look New Buyer Broker Agreement to Show Property Form.

Introducing the new Buyer Broker Agreement required to view any property! This important document, now mandatory under the recent National Association of Realtors (NAR) settlement case, ensures that buyers have dedicated representation when purchasing a home. Effective August 17th, buyers must sign this agreement before viewing any property, unless they choose to go directly to the seller's agent. Additionally, some sellers are now asking for this form to be signed as well. These changes help provide clarity and transparency, making your home-buying experience smoother and more informed.

IN OTHER NEWS

Monday, September 23, 2024

New book: Principles of Design' – Plus, a new travisher design and a discussion of Grizzly (good or bad?)

Now Shipping: 'Principles of Design'  Plus Our Thoughts on Grizzly Industrial

A quick look at all the stuff Lost Art Press published during the last seven days.

Megan is at Colonial Williamsburg this week for research, so Kale and I are processing stock for an upcoming chair class and launching our newest book: "Principles of Design." We're also trying to get a bunch of Exeter-pattern hammers assembled this week. This is not a quiet week.


Lost Art Press Blog


Now Shipping: 'Principles of Design'

Our newest title, "Principles of Design" was an early 20th-century text written to help shop teachers teach design. The book is a fantastic, logical and easy-to-understand book on design principles. We're only printing 3,000 copies, so check it out here.


Exeter Hammers, 'Principles of Design' & Dados

Megan shares a meaty excerpt from her forthcoming book "Dutch Tool Chests" on cutting dados by hand. Plus, updates on our Exeter-pattern hammer.


For Sale: Comb-back Stick Chair in Sycamore and Oak

I have put a new comb-back up for sale. It's $1,500 (which includes domestic shipping). That's on the very low end of my typical price sheet. Nothing's wrong with the chair, I just like y'all. Details here.


In 30 Years, Oak Trees Will Have More Woody Biomass

We aren't pollyanna about climate change, but there are some side-effects that might be good for woodworkers. Check out this paper from the Birmingham Institute of Forest Research.


Dovetailed Blanket Chest for Colonial Williamsburg Conference

Take a gander at the beautiful blanket chest that Megan is reproducing for the Colonial Williamsburg conference next year. And you can now register for said conference and cheer Megan on in person.


The American Peasant Substack


Make a Chair from a Dump

The older I get, the more willing I am to embrace unusual species in my chair work. In this post I discuss how excellent American sycamore is for seats, arms and combs. I also sing the praises of red oak and hickory, two other humble species.

(For paid subscribers, with a free preview)


Earlywood: 'The Will and the Deed'

The market for furniture makers such as myself is a supply problem as much as anything. If there aren't people making furniture for sale, then customers will turn to the factory stuff.

(Free for everyone)


The Anarchist's Apprentice Substack


Room to Wander

Even when on vacation, Kale's mind wanders back to the second chair they need to make for their apprenticeship. What will it be? Something flashy? Something new?

(For paid subscribers, with a free preview)


Don't Be a Hero

Learning to move lumber – and to move lumber with other woodworkers – is an important skill. Some tips to do it better. Plus, a trick on how to cut your through-tenons just a wee bit proud so they can be felt by the observer.

(For paid subscribers, with a free preview)


Never Sponsored Substack


Peter Galbert's T2 Travisher

Peter Galbert has redesigned the travisher. This one can be used more easily with hardwood seats, and it can take a heavy cut. You might not need a scorp/inshave.

(Free for everyone)


Double Square: Great for Dovetails

Double squares with a thin blade can help you find faults with your dovetails that are invisible to the naked eye. Megan offers you both new and used options.

(For paid subscribers, with a free preview)


Don't Poke the Bear. Pet It.

During the 1990s, a local woodworking store had a banner hanging up among its machinery, clamps and woodworking supplies: "Friends Don't let Friends Buy Grizzly." These days, the machine world is a mess of global ties. We help you make sense of it.

On Instagram This Week

Check out the chair class we just finished. Plus photos of our new Exeter-pattern hammer, which has just gone into production.

Wednesday, September 18, 2024

Stick Chair Journal No. 2 Now Shipping

Stick Chair Journal No. 2 Now Shipping




After an absurd number of delays, The Stick Chair Journal No. 2 is now shipping. The new issue contains complete plans for a Hobbit-esque stick chair, plus lots of photos of original chairs (for inspiration), techniques to help you at the bench and a profile of Welsh chairmaker Gareth Irwin.


The new issue is $25. Because of the arrival of the new issue, we are closing out copies of issue No. 1 at a special price. And offering a bundle of both issues Nos. 1 & 2 for a discount. Use the drop-down menu under "your selection" in the store for the options.


Follow Us

Monday, September 16, 2024

LAP Digest: New Hammers, Ridiculous Woodworking Books & Drunk Bees

Lost Art Press Digest

A quick look at all the stuff Lost Art Press published during the last seven days.

We are delighted to have a Chairmaker's Toolbox chair class going on this week, and we're happy to report that "The Stick Chair Journal" Vol. 2 is finally on its way to the warehouse, and will be up in the store soon (keep an eye on the blog and Insta – I' sure we'll be announcing it as soon as it's available). Here's what you might have missed last week….


Lost Art Press Blog


Finishes Used by John Brown

"American chairs are really polished. Typically, the finish is paint. Without exception all the American chairmakers I meet ask me how I get my finish. I fail to understand this because it is the least interesting part of my work. It's an aggravating necessity, as far as I am concerned."Here are the finishes that John Brown regularly used. These were always applied before assembling the chair.


'Dutch Tool Chests' Has Left the Building

I am so happy/relieved that the book I (Megan) started writing four years ago – "Dutch Tool Chests" – is finally in the hands of our printer. Inside is everything you need to build your own Dutch tool chest – 192 pages, from choosing materials at the home center or lumberyard to the paint. And of course, lots of hand-tool instruction in between – techniques and tool instruction that will come in handy for any number of projects.


LAP Open Wire, Sept. 14, 2024
Chris and I answered woodworking questions all day Saturday – worth a look (especially if you have chair questions). Our next Open Wire is Oct. 19.

The American Peasant Substack


The Chairmaker's Nightmare

I don't have bad dreams about woodworking. Instead, what I have is worse: Sleepless nights about woodworking. Sometimes my brain is trying to figure out a tricky design or assembly. But mostly, the anxiety goes like this: I have now shipped hundreds of chairs all over the country during the last 20 years. When will one of them break? Then what will I do? Will I have to fly to Seattle or New York City or Texas to fix it? What is going to break? The stretchers? The long sticks? A split seat? And when it happens, will I even be able to fix the problem?

(Free for everyone)


Hammers + Handles = Headaches


We began some trial assembly of our Exeter-pattern hammers today. The handles, made by Caleb James, are fantastic. But marrying the handles to the heads is a challenge.


Most of the problems were about getting the heads onto the handles so they were perfectly perpendicular. A lot of the problems will be solved with jigs and fixtures. I'm not a fan of jigs when making one-off chairs. But when we have to make 500 hammers in a row… yes please.

(For paid subscribers, with a free preview)


Earlywood: Ridiculous Woodworking Books
Everybody has a list of woodworking books they enjoy and a stack of woodworking books that they shouldn't have bought (anything with "Krenovian Birdhouses" in the title). And most woodworkers have a list of woodworking books that they wish would get published someday. That is not what we are writing about today. Below are the books that should never see the light of day. Or are simply ridiculous. Joel Moskowitz, the founder of Tools for Working Wood, came up with 11 sample titles below.
(Free for everyone)


Free Plans & Patterns: 7-stick Comb-back Chair

This is me handing over the plans for the seven-stick comb-back to everyone out there. You are welcome to make this chair for yourself or for sale. You don't have to credit me (though hat tips are always appreciated). The only thing I ask that you don't be a butthole and sell these plans to other people. They are free.

(Free for everyone)



The Anarchist's Apprentice Substack


Accidentus Interruptus

To correct or not to correct – Chris ponders when to step in to avoid bad results, and when to let Kale learn on their own.

(For paid subscribers, with a free preview)


The 'Common Chair' – the First of Many
Kale: "No one prepares you for the inner turmoil that comes at the end of each build or creation that doesn't perfectly match a vision. For that sick game of tug of war between the itching need to share a creation and the fear of vulnerability that comes with the exposure."
(For paid subscribers, with a free preview)



Never Sponsored Substack


Star M Bits: How to Prepare & Use Them

For now, Chris has landed on using Star M F-type bits for all the 5/8" and 3/4" mortises in his chairmaking. They are not perfect – not by a long shot. But if you are willing to pay the price, they can do excellent work

(For paid subscribers, with a free preview)


Magna-Tip Gunsmith Screwdriver Bits

Megan and Chris are slotted-screw snobs. If you are willing to use Torx screws in reproduction hardware then don't read any further. This post won't make any sense.

(For paid subscribers, with a free preview)


Setting Block for Lie-Nielsen Honing Guides
John Byer, an Indiana woodworker, makes these two setting blocks for Lie-Nielsen honing guides that marry with my sharpening philosophy: Pick one angle for all your tools and stick with it.

On Instagram This Week

Too much alcohol is a buzz kill.

Handmade Mugs, A New Stool Design, Band Saw Blades & More

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