March 2025: Phoenix is Heating Up—Literally & Market-Wise!

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View this email in your browser Spring has sprung—and with it comes a fresh batch of insights, trends, and a few wake-up calls for buyers, sellers, and investors alike. From shifting condo inventory to Zillow turning bearish, and from the rise of build-to-rent to a looming $384B commercial risk, this month's stories hit hard. Whether you're hunting for a condo, exploring commercial plays, or just keeping tabs on the Valley's wild ride, this month's issue is packed with perspective. Market Snapshot🎯March 2025 🏜️ Phoenix, It's Time to Go Back to the (Desert-Friendly) Drawing Board Phoenix is booming, but are we building homes that truly respect the desert environment? Inspired by Frank Lloyd Wright's principles, it's time to rethink how we design for the Sonoran heat. Lessons from Wright Frank Lloyd Wright's designs, like Taliesin West, worked with the desert rather than against it. Features like thick walls, natural ventilation, and locally sourced materials were sustainable and functional. Compare this to modern builds with glass-heavy facades and black rooftops that clash with the environment. A Call for Change Phoenix developers can embrace architectural styles like Desert Modern, Pueblo Revival, and Mid-Century Modern. Features such as shaded courtyards, water-harvesting roofs, and adobe-style insulation not only blend with the desert but also offer lower energy bills and higher resale value. The Future of Phoenix As climate change intensifies, building homes suited for the desert is not just about aesthetics—it's about survival and quality of life. Buyers are willing to invest in homes that stand out and are tailored to the environment. Let's make Phoenix a city that thrives in the desert, not just one that looks good on Instagram. Now go check out the Bloomberg piece that kicked this whole thing off. It's actually legit: 👉 Phoenix Can Learn From Frank Lloyd Wright's Desert Architecture Phoenix: The Build-to-Rent Capital of America—and It's Not Even Close Phoenix is making waves in the real estate world, and it's officially the Build-to-Rent (BTR) capital of the U.S. Over the past five years, BTR housing in the Valley has skyrocketed by 309%, outpacing every other city. In 2024 alone, Phoenix added 4,460 new single-family rental homes—more than any other city in the country. One of the largest developments, The Bungalows on Camelback, introduced 334 single-family rentals, ranking third nationally for BTR projects this year. What's driving this boom? A combination of strong demand for rentals, plentiful developable land in Phoenix's suburban areas, and an investor-friendly market. With interest rates still fluctuating, many prefer renting a new home instead of committing to a hefty mortgage. Looking ahead, more than 13,000 BTR homes are set to hit the Valley, keeping Phoenix firmly at the forefront of this growing trend. Zillow Turns Housing Bear… But Phoenix Still Has Some Fight Left in It Zillow just downgraded its 2025 housing forecast, now predicting a 1.7% national price drop. Rising inventory and affordability issues are shifting the market. But Phoenix is still holding on, with Zillow projecting +1.2% price growth locally. 🚨 Maricopa County inventory is up 55% year-over-year — from 12,262 to 19,069 homes — giving buyers more leverage. Reddit's buzzing, ResiClub broke it first, and we're watching closely. 👉 Read the full post for market insights + hot takes. The $384 Billion Time Bomb💣: Is Commercial Real Estate the Next 2008? Commercial real estate (CRE) is facing an unprecedented wave of loan extensions, with a jaw-dropping $384 billion deferred into 2025—a 40% increase compared to the previous year's maturities. These extensions are concentrated in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) and bank loans, with multifamily and office properties leading the surge. As lenders defer loans further into the future, many are warning of an inevitable reckoning. Drawing parallels to the 2008 financial crisis, today's trouble lies in rising refinancing costs rather than reckless lending. Office spaces and multifamily properties are among the hardest hit, while regional banks are left teetering on the edge. Why might this NOT be another 2008? Stronger banking regulations and a localized CRE crisis could limit the fallout—but it's hard to ignore the similarities. The big question remains: when will the reckoning occur? Loan extensions can only kick the can down the road for so long. Now is the time to prepare, save, and strategize—because when the fallout comes, those who are ready will weather the storm. 📬 March 2025 Condo Market Snapshot By PhxCondosForSale.com — Contributor to Arizona Real Estate Insider 🔥 Phoenix Inventory: 5.67 months (down from Feb, leaning balanced) Median Price: $380,000 Days on Market: 53 Sold-to-List: 97.2% 📌 Solid pricing + balanced pace = good time to list or buy 🌵 Scottsdale Inventory: 5.77 months (down from 8.75 in Feb) Median Price: $615,000 Days on Market: 55 Sold-to-List: 97% 📌 Inventory dropped fast — buyers still have options, but sellers gaining edge 🎓 Tempe Inventory: 4.61 months (down from Feb) Median Price: $341,000 Days on Market: 49 Sold-to-List: 98.5% 📌 Fast-moving, high-demand market — sellers in control 🌄 Carefree Inventory: 13.18 months (holding high) Median Price: $475,000 Days on Market: 31 Sold-to-List: 98% 📌 High supply = strong buyer leverage and room for deals 🧠 Final Take Valley inventory is shrinking across the board. Prices are steady or rising, especially in Phoenix and Tempe. Sellers are rewarded when priced right. Carefree is the spot for buyers hunting bargains. 📈 Phoenix Rising (and Shifting): How Our Commercial Market Stacks Up Nationally The latest NAR Commercial Real Estate Insights Report just dropped, and Phoenix is making moves—some good, some challenging, but all full of opportunity. Here's the quick breakdown: 🏢 Office: Phoenix ranks in the Top 10 for highest vacancy (16.71%), up slightly from last year. That's tough—but also prime time for value buys and repositioning plays. 🏘️ Multifamily: Strong demand! We absorbed 19,523 units—a big jump from last year. Phoenix remains one of the strongest rental markets in the country. 🏭 Industrial: We're in the Top 10 again, absorbing 17.25M sq. ft.—up from 11.66M last year. Logistics and warehousing continue to fuel our growth. 🛍️ Retail: Nationally slowing, but Phoenix retail is evolving. Grocery-anchored centers and experiential retail are holding strong. 🏨 Hospitality: Back to pre-pandemic highs. Events, conferences, and year-round tourism keep Phoenix hotels busy. 📉 The Economy: Interest rates holding at 4.5%, inflation down to 2.8%, and the job market stays steady. 🚀 What's Next? Phoenix remains one of the most dynamic markets in the U.S. Want to find the best opportunities? Let's talk—whether you're investing, selling, or repositioning assets. 📎 Full NAR Report: Click here to view IN OTHER NEWS What a Recession Could Mean for the Housing Market. Real Estate vs. Stock Market: Which Is the Better Investment Right Now. The Devil Wears Prada' Loft Has Hit the Market for $9 Million. Homes are selling at the slowest pace in 6 years In March 2025, 51.2% of Phoenix home sellers offered concessions, while 15.5% of pending contracts fell out of escrow. - Redfin Why Americans love McMansions Copyright © 2025 Juan Pesqueira @ Attorneys Realty All rights reserved. EQUAL HOUSING OPPORTUNITY Our mailing address is: 7010 E Chauncey Lane Ste 110, Phoenix, AZ 85054 Want to change how you receive these emails? You can update your preferences or unsubscribe

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View this email in your browser The 'Blem' Shelf, All About Mahogany, the End of Classes at LAP & More A quick look at all the stuff Lost Art Press published during the last seven days. I'm recovering from a weekend of teaching a dovetailed step stool – lots of fun of course, but it's still a bit much for me to be upright all day for two days in a row (my ankle is letting its displeasure be known). So it's nice to be sitting at the computer today (and on the couch in our storefront this morning). But, lingering ankle pain aside, I'm sure going to miss teaching in the Lost Art Press shop (see the link under "The American Peasant" heading for more on that sad news). – Fitz Lost Art Press Blog 'Blems' – Available Only at Our Anthe Storefront One of the benefits of stopping by our storefront (407 Madison Ave., Covington, Ky., 41011, open Mon., Wed. and Fri., 10 a.m.-2 p.m.) is the opportunity to shop the Seconds Shelf. I Used to Do What You Do "When I really cranked out articles for the local magazine where this acquaintance had seen my bio, I could make about $15 an hour. But this calculus relates to net income, not the gross revenue required to maintain a business – and certainly not my cabinetmaking business. It doesn't matter whether I'm writing, sleeping, or working billable hours; a host of fixed and related expenses still have to be paid." Read this excerpt on running a business from Nancy Hiller's "Making Things Work." The American Peasant Substack The End of Classes in Covington We are sad to announce that after 2025, we will no longer be able to offer classes in our Covington shop. (Chris and I will both be teaching elsewhere, but I'm sad to not be able to teach and go home at night to my cats.) (Free for everyone) Earlywood: On Symmetry and Screwing Up Perfect symmetry might be boring in the world of design, but it can save your keister when it comes to joinery. (Free for everyone) The Truth About Mahogany, Part 1 & The Truth About Mahogany, Part 2 Read this well-researched overview of current discussions about the use (and abuse) associated with mahogany. This is the first in a series of deeper dives into important and interesting woodworking topics. (Free for everyone) The Anarchist's Apprentice Substack What if the Design Lesson is the Physical Book Itself? Ratios might be pleasing – or not. But taking a thoughtful look at them can sometimes push you over a thorny design hump. (For paid subscribers, with a free preview) Never Sponsored Substack Lee Valley Glue Pot & Warmer While perhaps not suitable for a large assembly job, this little glue pot (a replica of an historic example) is perfect for a small project or repair. (Free for everyone) On Instagram This Week Chris just returned from a few days in Ashland, Wisconsin, where he was shooting photos for Jarrod Dahl's book "Axis Mundi," on pole lathe projects. Visit Lost Art Press Copyright (C) 2025 Lost Art Press. All rights reserved. You are receiving this email because you subscribed to the Lost Art Press blog. Welcome! We try our best to make this a good experience for both of us... Our mailing address is: Lost Art Press 407 Madison Ave Covington, KY 41011-1519 USA Want to change how you receive these emails? You can update your preferences or unsubscribe

Intro Roubo Price through Tonight, Make & Use a Waving Engine, Bird Cage Awls & More!

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View this email in your browser Intro Roubo Price through Tonight, Make & Use a Waving Engine, Bird Cage Awl Review & More! A quick look at all the stuff Lost Art Press published during the last seven days. Chris is in the wilds of Wisconsin this week taking photos for Jarrod Dahl's book on pole lathe turning, and Kale is at the storefront today until 2 p.m. … so I'm hobbling around the shop and machine room by myself, eyeing the pile of cherry that I have to make into parts for my step stool class this weekend. No glue-ups and only four parts, so it will be relatively easy prep. Except for the simultaneous feeding and catching on the planer; pretty sure that is still beyond me. I think that job might have to wait until tomorrow, when I can conscript Kale. (I'm awfully excited that I'll finally get to use my new bench this weekend!) So today, I'll finish up the edits on Chris's revised "Anarchist's Tool Chest"; it'll be ready for a handful of new images then final review when he's back in town, then it's off to press. Whee! Here's a look at what else has been going on around these here parts over the last week. Lost Art Press Blog Save on 'Roubo on Furniture' Through April 21 We've extended the introductory price of $100 for "With All Precision Possible: Roubo on Furniture" through 11:59 p.m. tonight (April 21, 2025) – so if you haven't already, get your copy today! LAP Open Wire, April 19, 2025 Saturday, we answered many woodworking questions (OK – Chris answered many questions, given that the majority were about chairs…about which I pretend to know nothing). Have a look, and you just might find answers to your own questions! But if not, mark your calendars for our remaining 2025 Open Wire dates so you can get answers: June 14; August 9; October 25; and December 13. Back in Stock: Scrapers & 2 Books We've been our of scrapers for a while – but we ordered and received the steel for this batch before any tariffs went into effect, so for now, the price remains the same. We also restocked on Tim and Betsan Bowen's excellent book "The Welsh Stick Chair: A Visual Record" and "Door Making and Window-Making." Reproducing and Using Moxon's 'Waving Engine' "Roubo on Furniture," along with an excellent translation of the original French text into English, includes a selection of modern essays to help give context or further explain a concept. Here's an excerpt from Jonathan Thornton's on making a using a "waving engine." The American Peasant Substack Earlywood: Planing In Circles A tool test of sorts: old beats new (in some cases, but not all). (Free for everyone) Preview Some of the Goodies in the Revised 'Anarchist's Tool Chest' Find out some of what's changed in the new edition of Chris's "The Anarchist's Tool Chest," plus paid subscribers get a preview of the chest's current contents. (For paid subscribers, with a free preview) The Anarchist's Apprentice Substack Deliberation Station Kale discusses three little words that have stuck with them from a college design class, but how their meaning now has new resonance. (For paid subscribers, with a free preview) Never Sponsored Substack Benchcrafted Split-top Roubo Chris and I discuss our likes and dislikes (mostly likes) of this behemoth of a bench. (Surprise: we don't always agree). (For paid subscribers, with a free preview) Benchcrafted Czeck Edge Awls: My Little Beavers It is apparently Benchcrafted Season at Lost Art Press – here, Chris reviews the redesigned bird cage awls. (For paid subscribers, with a free preview) On Instagram This Week A Bulls&$t Chair in the wild (from Mike Marvell), and more glimpses of Chris's new tool chest. Visit Lost Art Press Copyright (C) 2025 Lost Art Press. All rights reserved. You are receiving this email because you subscribed to the Lost Art Press blog. Welcome! We try our best to make this a good experience for both of us... Our mailing address is: Lost Art Press 407 Madison Ave Covington, KY 41011-1519 USA Want to change how you receive these emails? You can update your preferences or unsubscribe