Friday, February 28, 2025

Phoenix Real Estate Heats Up! Condo Listing Boom, Gen Z Buyers & Market Shifts πŸ“ˆ

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 ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏ ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏ ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏ ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏ ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏ ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏

March is here, and while the rest of the country is thawing out, we're still enjoying prime Phoenix weatherβ€”one of the many reasons people keep moving here! This month's newsletter recaps the biggest real estate trends from February and what's ahead. January's Market Snapshot gave us a lot to digest, especially with the Phoenix condo market inventory explosionβ€”buyers, take note! We also explored whether Build-to-Rent is the next big boom in Arizona and how homebuilders are pressing Trump to ease tariffs on building materials. Meanwhile, the market is seeing a demographic shift as Gen Z steps in while Millennials step back. On the commercial side, Phoenix ranked 11th in the U.S. for office-to-apartment conversions, a trend reshaping urban real estate. If you're thinking about buying, we broke down the true cost of homeownership in Phoenix-Scottsdale-Mesa in 2025β€”it's more than just the mortgage. And for a historical perspective, we looked at U.S. housing price returns since 1942β€”because knowing the past helps predict the future. Stay ahead of the market, enjoy the perfect March weather, and let's make smart moves in real estate!

Market Snapshot🎯January 2025

Is Build-to-Rent the Next Big Boom in Arizona?

The American Dream is changing. Instead of buying homes, more people are renting brand new houses. This new trend, called Build-to-Rent (BTR), is gaining popularity, especially in Arizona.


Why is Build-to-Rent Popular?

  • Affordable and Easy: Renting is cheaper than buying, with no large down payments or repair worries.

  • Flexibility: Renters can move easily without the hassle of selling a home, perfect for those who like to move or work remotely.

  • Modern Living: Many BTR homes offer private yards, gated access, and community centers.


Arizona Leading the Way

According to Point2Homes, Arizona is a major hub for Build-to-Rent developments, with nearly 14,000 new single-family rental homes under construction, primarily in the Phoenix metro area, Buckeye, Surprise, Goodyear, and Queen Creek.


Changing the American Dream

Build-to-Rent communities provide stability and comfort without the long-term commitment of homeownership. These new rental homes are a great option, especially in well-developed communities.


With Arizona at the forefront, renting new, well-equipped homes offers a fulfilling alternative to traditional homeownership.


For more insights, check out the full article on Point2Homes.

Homebuilders Urge Trump to Exempt Building Materials from Tariffs

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) has asked President Trump to exempt building materials from the new 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. They argue that these tariffs will increase construction costs and worsen the housing affordability crisis.

Millennials Out (Somewhat), Gen Z In: Arizona's Shifting Demographics

A recent StorageCafe study reveals that Arizona is attracting a significant number of new residents, primarily from California, Texas, and Florida. The main drivers for this migration are job opportunities, a more affordable lifestyle, and Arizona's natural beauty. Interestingly, Gen Z is making up nearly 26% of these new residents, driving Arizona's growth with their pursuit of opportunities and careers. Remote work has also played a big role, with 21% of newcomers working from home.


However, this influx has put pressure on the housing market, causing home prices to rise by 61% over the past five years. While many are moving to Arizona, some are also leaving, mainly millennials and Gen Zers, in search of career opportunities and affordable housing elsewhere.


Despite the challenges, Arizona remains a dynamic and attractive place to live, offering a unique blend of job opportunities, affordable living, and a beautiful outdoor lifestyle.


For more detailed insights, check out the full Storage Cafe article.

Phoenix Ranks 11th in U.S. for Office-to-Apartment Conversions


As of 2025, the trend of converting office spaces into residential units has hit a new high, with a pipeline of 70,700 units across the U.S. Phoenix stands out as the 11th largest market for these conversions, boasting 1,634 units in the pipeline. Despite this, only around 4% of Phoenix's office spaces are suitable for such transformations, significantly below the national average of 14%. However, it still represents almost 6 million square feet of potential residential space. One notable project is the redevelopment of the Canyon Corporate Center into 400 apartments. Although Phoenix lags behind cities like New York and Los Angeles, it remains a key player in adaptive reuse, with 71% of its new units expected from office-to-apartment conversions.

The True Cost of Owning a Home in Phoenix-Scottsdale-Mesa in 2025

Owning a home is more than just a mortgage payment. According to Nick Pisano on Real Estate Witch, homeowners in Phoenix-Scottsdale-Mesa face additional annual costs exceeding $24,000. These include:

  • Utilities: $7,319

  • Maintenance: $6,087

  • Renovations: $5,762

  • Property Taxes: $3,057

  • Homeowners Insurance: $2,304


For those in a Homeowners Association (HOA), add an extra $3,077, totaling $27,606 annually.


Despite these costs, 81% of homeowners find expenses higher than anticipated, and many spend an average of 6.9 hours per week on maintenance and repairs.


In Phoenix, the median home price ranges from $445,000 to $495,000. Here's the breakdown:


Cost Category

Annual Cost

Percentage of Home Value ($445,000)

Percentage of Home Value ($495,000)

Utilities

$7,319

1.64%

1.48%

Maintenance

$6,087

1.37%

1.23%

Renovations

$5,762

1.29%

1.16%

Property Taxes

$3,057

0.69%

0.62%

Homeowners Insurance

$2,304

0.52%

0.47%

HOA Fees

$3,077

0.69%

0.62%


Total annual cost:

  • $445,000 Home: 5.51% (without HOA), 6.20% (with HOA)

  • $495,000 Home: 4.96% (without HOA), 5.58% (with HOA)


Understanding these costs can help you better advise clients on the true costs of homeownership in the Valley of the Sun.


For more detailed insights, check out the full article by Nick Pisano on Real Estate Witch.

New Year, New Heat πŸ”₯ Phoenix Condo Market Inventory Explodes πŸ’£ in January 2025


The January 2025 market update is in, and inventory is way up, giving buyers more options and sellers more competition.


πŸ”Ή Phoenix – Inventory doubled (+112%), homes take 69 days to sell, and prices hold at $321K. More choices = more buyer power!

πŸ”Ή Scottsdale – 8 months of inventory (+87%), median price $597K. Sellers need patience, buyers can take their time.

πŸ”Ή Tempe – A balanced market with 4.88 months inventory, prices at $335K, and homes selling in 66 days.

πŸ”Ή Surprise (Bonus Market!) – 8.54 months inventory, homes sitting for 93 days, and a buyer-friendly market with prices at $338K.


πŸ’‘ The Takeaway: More condos = more opportunities for buyers to negotiate. Sellers, pricing competitively is key! Want to make a move? Let's chat! πŸš€

The Good. The Bad. The Ugly. U.S. Housing Price Returns Since 1942


The U.S. housing market has seen its share of ups and downs over the past 82 years. Here's a quick look at the trends:


The Good: Booms & Growth πŸ“ˆ

  • Post-WWII Boom (1940s-1950s): The economy surged, and the G.I. Bill fueled homeownership. Notable years: 1946 (+24%), 1947 (+21%).

  • Tech Boom & Economic Growth (1990s-2000s): Economic expansion pushed housing prices upward. Notable years: 1999 (+8%), 2000 (+9%).

  • Pandemic Housing Surge (2020-2021): Remote work, low interest rates, and demand for space sent prices skyrocketing. Notable year: 2021 (+19%).

The Bad: Slowdowns & Corrections 😐

  • High-Interest Rate Era (1980s): Inflation and steep mortgage rates slowed price growth. Notable year: 1990 (-1%).

  • Market Readjustments (2010s): The economy healed after the 2008 crash, but price growth remained moderate. Notable years: 2012-2013 (+6% to +11%).

The Ugly: Crashes & Recessions πŸ“‰

  • The Housing Crash (2007-2011): The biggest housing crisis in modern history. Notable years: 2007 (-5%), 2008 (-12%), 2009-2011 (-4% each year).

Where Are We Today? (2024 Market Snapshot) πŸ€”

  • High Home Prices: Prices remain elevated due to past demand surges.

  • High Interest Rates: Mortgage rates have climbed, making affordability tougher.

  • More Inventory: Homes are sitting longer, giving buyers more choices.

  • Uncertainty: Will prices dip, or will demand keep them steady?


Conclusion: Lessons from History πŸ“šThe U.S. housing market has always bounced back, but not without bumps along the way. Whether it's the booms of the post-war years, the busts of the Great Recession, or today's uncertainty, history teaches us that the market moves in cycles. Patience and strategic pricing are key for buyers and sellers.


What do you think? Are we heading for a slowdown or another boom?

IN OTHER NEWS

Tuesday, February 25, 2025

Untitledβ€˜The Woodworker Vols. 1-4’ is Back (Plus a Special Offer)

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͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­ ͏ β€Œ     Β­
 ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏ ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏ ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏ ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏ ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏ ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏

'The Woodworker Vols. 1-4' is Back
(Plus a Special Offer)


four volumes of Charle Hayward's The Woodworker

Well it took longer than expected, but we now have all four volumes of "The Woodworker" back in stock and ready to ship. If you order before April 30, you can get all four volumes for $100 with free domestic shipping. That's $39 off. Plus the free shipping.


Here's the link to the page. The books are also available for sale individually.


These four books are the backbone of a complete education in handwork. A team of six people (including some extra helpers) worked for eight years to read, organize, scan, design and produce these four books from the articles written and edited by Charles H. Hayward.


As editor of The Woodworker magazine from 1939 to 1967, Hayward oversaw the transformation of the craft from one that was almost entirely hand-tool based to a time where machines were common, inexpensive and had displaced the handplanes, chisels and backsaws of Hayward's training and youth.


Our massive project distilled the thousands of articles Hayward published in The Woodworker. This is information that hasn't been seen or read in decades. No matter where you are in the craft, from a complete novice to a professional, you will find information here you cannot get anywhere else.


The books have 1,492 pages total, with thousands of hand drawings and photos. The books are printed in the USA and are designed to last decades. The sewn bindings will lay flat on your bench. The uncoated paper is easy on your eyes.


For more information on the project, including a complete list of all the articles in the books, click here.



Monday, February 24, 2025

Open House, Warning Flags, a Re-thought Tool Review & More

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Open House, Warning Flags, a Re-thought Tool Review & More

A quick look at all the stuff Lost Art Press published during the last seven days.

We're gearing up for the Lie-Nielsen Hand Tool Event at our Willard St. location (March 7-8), then the Grand Opening of our Anthe storefront at 2 p.m. on March 9 – more on that below. For me, that means figuring out how to get myself and my wheelchair over the river three days in a row, without relying too heavily on friends and neighbors (who've already given me so much help!). I think I might have to rely on the kindness of strangers (aka Uber)


It's been five weeks since my ankle surgery; it feels like five months. I cannot wait to be back in the shop…and to be able to drive myself there. But at least I can keep up online – below is what we've posted over the last seven days.


Lost Art Press Blog


Warning Flags for Long Loads

We've printed a limited number of cotton warning flags to attach to the back of long loads on your car or truck. Or to just hang on your wall. We have about 60 remaining as I write this – so if you want one, hurry!


Coming Soon: 'Build a Chair from Bulls%$t'

If all goes as planned, we'll soon be sending Chris' latest book, "Build a Chair from Bulls%$t," to press. Plus there's an accompanying video that will be free for everyone.


A New Stick Chair Kit from Alexander Brothers

Lack of access to a lumberyard is no excuse for not building a chair – Alexander Brothers is now offering yet another kit from "The Stick Chair Book"; this one is for the curved-back armchair (it also works for the Irish-y chair Chris built for Fine Woodworking Magazine earlier this year).


Anthe Grand Opening: 2 p.m. March 9

We look forward to – finally! – welcoming folks into our new storefront, warehouse and editorial offices. Is there still work to do on the place? Of course. But is it now functional (and dare I say even comfortable)? Yes!!

The American Peasant Substack


Pinch Rod Progress

Wearethisclose to starting production on the new Crucible Tools Pinch Rods; the prototypes above still show some rough edges, but the kinks have been sorted. (This, by the by, which is used to check the diagonals on casework among other things, is my second-favorite tool we make, after the 1:6/1:8 Dovetail Template β€“ both are invaluable for about 90 percent of my work.)

(For paid subscribers, with a free preview)


Earlywood: Yesterday's Shame (and Tomorrow's)

Early work is nothing of which to be ashamed, writes Chris…at least for a while. He finally succumbed to the siren's call of the curb on the piece mentioned here. No, there are no pictures of it.

(Free for everyone)


It's a Smalls World

In between days/weeks/months-long projects, there's always time for "smalls."


The Anarchist's Apprentice Substack


Din-Kale's Woodshop

Get a sneak peak of Kale and Bridgid (of Dinkle's Woodshop fame) on camera (they spent a few days building a "bullsh&$t" chair on video – which is coming soon to a website near you).

(For paid subscribers, with a free preview)


The Liquid Price

Debt, obligations and teaching methods – different for everyone. (Plus a fortunate mistake.)

(Free for everyone)


Never Sponsored Substack


Revisited: Taylor Toolworks Bed Rock Planes

After someone we trust told us we must have gotten lucky with the No. 4 we tried, Chris ordered a No. 3 from Taylor Toolworks – this time through a non-woodworking friend of a friend (to make sure we didn't get a specially chosen tool). The results were different than in our No. 4 experience.

(For paid subscribers, with a free preview)

On Instagram This Week

We took a drive up to Lebanon, Ohio, on Saturday to see a new Shaker furniture display at the Warren County Historical Society and Museum. Both Chris and I are pretty sure the beauty above wasn't on display the last time we were there. (The collection there is impressive, and worth stopping for if you're in the area. Also worth it to then stop in to the Golden Lamb for a slice of Shaker sugar pie.)

Casework Design Tool, β€˜Artisan Geometry,’ One Good Chair & More

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