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 |  | I hope you enjoyed a fantastic Thanksgiving filled with gratitude, great food, and even better company! As we wrap up 2024 and look ahead, the real estate world is buzzing with forecasts for 2025. Here's what the experts are predicting:
2025 Housing Market Forecast A variety of agencies and firms have shared their insights, anticipating a 2.6% average rise in home prices and approximately 4.47 million home sales. Here's how some top names stack up:
Home Prices
Home Sales
This year's sales pace of 4 million marks the slowest since the 2008 financial crisis. While next year's projections suggest a 5% increase, sales will remain below historical norms, which have averaged 5.15 million annually over the last 20 years. What's Driving the Market? Inventory Shortages: 2024's tight inventory has been a major challenge, but HousingWire predicts a 13% increase in active listings, reaching 720,000 by the end of next year. No Crash Ahead: Despite a slower-than-usual recovery, experts agree a housing crash is unlikely in 2025.
As always, forecasts aren't set in stone, but they provide valuable insights to help us prepare and strategize. |
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|  | Market Snapshot๐ฏOctober 2024
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|  | Early Forecast: Home Sales and Mortgage Rates Show Promise for 2025-2026
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun projects a promising outlook for the housing market, predicting a 9% rise in home sales for 2025 and a 13% boost in 2026. Mortgage rates are also expected to stabilize around 6%, providing some relief to buyers who've faced recent rate hikes.
Yun highlights that homeownership remains a major wealth-building tool, with homeowners' net worth currently averaging $415,000 compared to $10,000 for renters. He notes that growing job opportunities and increased housing supply should help more people enter the market, despite persistent affordability challenges.
However, as with any forecast, caution is key. Just last year, Yun's predictions for 2024 anticipated lower rates and higher sales, which didn't materialize due to unexpected inflation spikes. This is why we say forecasts serve as a guide, not a guarantee—use them to set expectations, but always be ready to adjust as the market unfolds. |
|  | The Evolving American Dream: Why Condos Are the Future of Homeownership.
As home prices continue to rise, condos are becoming an attractive option for aspiring homeowners in Arizona. In urban hotspots like Phoenix, Scottsdale, and Tempe, condos offer a more affordable entry into homeownership, with the added perks of low maintenance, vibrant city living, and significant savings compared to single-family homes.
For many, including me, a condo serves as the perfect starting point. My first real estate purchase was a condo in Scottsdale, which I chose for its affordability and urban lifestyle. Over time, I was able to sell that condo and upgrade to a single-family home in Tempe. This journey illustrates how a condo can be a stepping stone, providing a foothold in the market and building equity toward future dreams. Whether you're looking to live at the heart of the city or enjoy the convenience of an HOA that handles exterior maintenance, condos are making the American Dream more accessible and achievable.
You can read the full blog post here. |
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|  | Fannie Mae Predicts Mortgage Rate Surge to Keep Home Sales Near Historic Lows Through 2025
Market Outlook: Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group has revised its forecast for existing home sales, now expecting only a 4% rise in 2025 from a nearly 30-year low in 2024. This downward revision is due to significant increases in mortgage rates and other long-duration bonds.
Mortgage Rates: The ESR Group previously anticipated mortgage rates to dip below 6% in early 2025, but now expects rates to end 2025 at 6.3% and remain above 6% through 2026.
Sales Projections: Despite the challenging environment, the ESR Group predicts a 17% improvement in existing home sales in 2026 as affordability conditions improve and pent-up demand materializes. New home sales are also expected to improve in both 2025 and 2026, driven by homebuilders offering incentives.
Economic Growth: The ESR Group's economic growth outlook remains stable, with minor upward revisions to near-term growth in personal consumption. The 2026 GDP forecast sees the economy growing near its long-run trend rate of about 2.2%.
Inflation: Core inflation is expected to remain elevated in the near term but is projected to return to the Federal Reserve's 2% target by the second quarter of 2026. Lower oil prices and a softer global demand outlook are expected to keep topline inflation measures below core inflation through 2025.
Key Takeaway: The higher mortgage rate environment is likely to strengthen the ongoing lock-in effect, keeping inventories of homes added to the market and sales of existing homes subdued through next year. Affordability will remain the primary constraint on housing activity through the forecast horizon. |
|  | October Phoenix CRE Update: Strong Multifamily Demand, Industrial Potential, and a Cautious Recovery Amid Interest Rate Cuts
The latest National Association of Realtors CRE insights paint a cautiously optimistic picture for Phoenix's commercial real estate market. With the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts, there's hope for a more favorable market moving forward. Multifamily Sector: Strong demand continues, with significant absorption and stable rent growth in Phoenix. Industrial Sector: While growth has slowed, vacancy rates are rising, and the demand for industrial space could increase as projects previously put on hold resume.
Overall, the Phoenix CRE market is adapting, with opportunities in both the multifamily and industrial sectors. As interest rates continue to ease, expect a cautious recovery with growth potential in these key areas. |
|  | Home Sales Heat Up: A Closer Look at October's Market
Source. Redfin
October brought some surprising news for the housing market! Existing home sales experienced a significant surge, jumping 1.6% month-over-month, marking the strongest monthly growth since January 2022. This momentum continued with a year-over-year increase of 1.7%, the first annual uptick since November 2021. Key Takeaways from October:
Total Home Sales: Both existing and newly built homes saw a combined 1.6% MoM and 3.4% YoY increase, reaching an 18-month high. Median Home Sale Price: Up 5.2% YoY to $435,313, the largest annual gain in half a year. Pending Sales: Decreased 1.1% MoM on a seasonally adjusted basis. Buyer Demand: Homebuyer service requests on Redfin's platform increased by 25% YoY, the highest since the 2022 downturn.
What Does This Mean? While the recent uptick in sales is encouraging, the decline in pending sales raises some concerns. The spike in mortgage rates last month likely eroded much of the buying power gained over the summer. With mortgage rate volatility expected to continue due to the evolving economic landscape, it's uncertain whether the increased buyer demand will sustain.
As we navigate this dynamic market, it's crucial to stay informed and adapt to changing conditions. We'll continue to monitor the market closely and provide you with the latest insights. |
|  | Phoenix Condo Market Update: Balancing Inventory and Fast Sales in October 2024
The latest condo market trends are in, and there's plenty to talk about. Whether you're buying, selling, or just curious, here's a snapshot of what's happening across Phoenix, Scottsdale, and Tempe.
๐ Phoenix Condo MarketInventory Surge: Months Supply of Inventory is up to 7.21, a 158.42% increase over the past year. Fast Sales: Homes are selling in just 59 days! Strong Prices: List-to-Sold Price Ratio is 98.2%, showing homes are selling close to asking price. Median Price: $325,000 — balanced and affordable.
✨ Balanced market = opportunities for both buyers and sellers!
๐ Scottsdale Condo MarketBalanced Inventory: Months Supply of Inventory is 6.93, up by 109.37%. Speedy Sales: Homes are moving in just 49 days. Competitive Offers: List-to-Sold Price Ratio is 97.5%. Higher Price Point: Median Sold Price is $468,000.
✨ Scottsdale remains a fast-paced, high-value market for those ready to act.
๐ Tempe Condo MarketSlightly Tighter Supply: Months Supply of Inventory at 5.29 (up 133.04%). Quick Turnover: Median Days on Market is 55 days. Top Dollar Sales: List-to-Sold Price Ratio leads the region at 98.8%! Median Price: $370,000 — a solid mid-range value.
✨ A great balance of affordability and competitiveness.
What Does This Mean for You?๐ก For Buyers: More inventory means more options! Act quickly to secure your dream condo.
๐ฐ For Sellers: Homes are selling fast and close to asking price — a strong time to list.
Brought to you by PhxCondosForSale.com
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|  | ๐ก Why Phoenix is Perfect for Your Second Home
Did you know Phoenix is one of the top spots for second homes? With 65,241 properties, Maricopa County ranks #4 in the U.S. for seasonal living. Here's why: ☀️ Year-Round Sunshine: 300+ sunny days a year make it the ultimate escape from winter chills. ๐ฏ Adventure & Relaxation: Golf, hiking, fine dining, and spa days await. Try "A" Mountain for a quick hike! ๐ฒ Prime Location: Vegas is just 4 hours away, along with easy access to Sedona and Flagstaff. ๐ผ Smart Investment: Phoenix homes appreciate quickly, and demand is high for rentals from tourists and ASU students. Plus, there are potential tax benefits!
You can read the full post titled "The Allure of a Second Home in Phoenix: Why Maricopa County Ranks Among the Best" here. |
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