Friday, August 30, 2024

The US Housing Market has had Annual Appreciation Every Quarter since 2012, FHFA reports.

For the past few months, we've been tracking the downward trend in existing home sales, even calling it a housing recession due to the significant slowdown. But there's good news—July saw a reversal in this trend. Sales of previously owned homes rose nationwide by 1.3%, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.95 million, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The median sales price also increased by 4.2% year-over-year, hitting $422,600, while inventory rose slightly, though still below pre-pandemic levels.


Here's a regional breakdown of the month-over-month existing home sales:

  • Northeast: +4.3%

  • West: +1.4%

  • South: +1.1%

  • Midwest: +0.0%


On the commercial side, the NAR's July 2024 report shows mixed results. Office spaces are still struggling with high vacancy rates, but Phoenix might fare better as businesses here lean towards smaller, flexible workspaces. Multifamily properties continue to see strong demand, particularly in Phoenix, due to high mortgage rates pushing more people towards renting. The retail and industrial sectors are facing tighter supply and cooling demand, respectively, but there are still opportunities for growth in the right areas. Overall, flexibility and adaptability will be key in navigating these market changes.

Quick Market Snapshot🎯July

Why Yahoo Finance Keeps Getting Phoenix Housing Market Predictions Wrong! ❌


Recent headlines, such as Yahoo Finance's "10 Housing Markets That Will Plummet in Value Over the Next 5 Years," suggest a bleak future for Phoenix real estate. However, as a local expert, I see Phoenix as a solid investment for several reasons:

  1. Historical Resilience and Growth: Phoenix has consistently shown resilience, with steady home value appreciation driven by strong economic fundamentals and population growth.

  2. Strong Economic Drivers: A diverse and growing economy—spanning tech, healthcare, education, and finance—provides stability and supports property values.

  3. Population Growth: Phoenix attracts relocators from more expensive markets, fueling housing demand and supporting long-term value.

  4. Comparative Affordability: Despite rising prices, Phoenix remains more affordable than cities like Los Angeles or San Francisco, attracting investors seeking value.

  5. Development and Infrastructure: Significant projects like the expansion of Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport and new commercial developments enhance the area's appeal and property values.

  6. Seasonal Market Trends: Market fluctuations are normal. Short-term cooling often precedes growth, offering opportunities for savvy investors.

  7. Smart Investment Opportunities: Lower prices and reduced competition now can mean excellent future returns.

  8. Phoenix Lifestyle Appeal: The city's warm climate, recreational options, and vibrant culture continue to draw people, sustaining housing demand.


While some predict a downturn, Phoenix's long-term prospects remain strong. Realtor.com forecasts substantial price increases in the coming years. If you're considering investing in Phoenix real estate, you're buying into a thriving, future-forward community.


Explore Phoenix real estate with a positive outlook and make an informed decision based on these factors. Read Full Post.

Snagging a Starter Home in These Phoenix Neighborhoods Will Cost You More Than Seven Figures.


In many parts of the country, a "starter home" suggests modest beginnings, but in upscale areas like Paradise Valley, Arcadia, North Scottsdale, and North Central Phoenix, it now means something entirely different—think million-dollar homes.


Paradise Valley stands as the pinnacle of luxury, where a $1 million "starter" home offers not just a place to live, but a taste of opulence and access to elite amenities. In Arcadia, historic charm meets modern sophistication, with million-dollar homes set in large, picturesque lots close to downtown Phoenix and Scottsdale. North Scottsdale showcases sleek, contemporary living spaces with cutting-edge features, while North Central Phoenix blends urban sophistication with suburban comfort.


As the real estate landscape evolves, so does the definition of a starter home in these high-demand areas. If you're considering entering these prestigious markets, be prepared for a significant financial commitment. Working with an experienced local real estate agent who understands the nuances of these luxury markets is key to finding a home that not only meets your needs but also exceeds your expectations.


Welcome to the new normal of million-dollar starter homes in Paradise Valley and beyond. Read Full Post.

6 Myths About Buying Commercial Property That Nobody Tells You.


Investing in commercial property can be a major opportunity for small investors and entrepreneurs, but several myths often cloud the process. Here are six common misconceptions debunked:

  1. Myth: Only Big Corporations Can Afford Commercial Property
    Reality: Commercial properties aren't just for large corporations. With various financing options like SBA loans, small business owners and individual investors can also afford them.

  2. Myth: Commercial Real Estate is Riskier Than Residential Real Estate
    Reality: Commercial real estate can be just as secure as residential, offering stable income through longer lease terms and reduced maintenance costs for property owners.

  3. Myth: You Need to Be an Expert to Invest in Commercial Real Estate
    Reality: You don't need to be an expert. A seasoned commercial real estate agent can guide you through the process, helping you make informed decisions.

  4. Myth: Commercial Properties Don't Appreciate Like Residential Properties
    Reality: Commercial properties can appreciate significantly, especially in high-demand areas, and often offer higher income potential than residential properties.

  5. Myth: Leasing Commercial Property is More Profitable Than Owning
    Reality: Owning commercial property provides long-term financial benefits like equity building, appreciation, and tax advantages, making it more profitable over time.

  6. Myth: Mom and Pop Shops Can't Compete in the Commercial Property Market
    Reality: Small businesses can successfully invest in commercial properties. Many small retail spaces and mixed-use properties are ideal for "mom and pop" shops, with various incentives available to help them enter the market.


Final Thoughts:
Don't let these myths deter you from exploring commercial real estate in the Phoenix-Scottsdale-Tempe area. With the right guidance and resources, commercial properties offer lucrative opportunities for small business owners and investors alike. If you're considering a commercial investment, reach out, and let's find the perfect property for your needs.
Read Full Post.

The Rise of Arizona's Exurbs: A Closer Look at Suburban Growth Outward.


Suburban Sprawl Continues


As Arizona's population grows, so does the demand for housing. While Phoenix has long been the center of this expansion, exurbs - areas beyond the suburbs - are now experiencing rapid growth. This trend is driven by factors like affordability, more space, and the rise of remote work.


Key Arizona Exurbs

  • Queen Creek: This Phoenix suburb has seen a significant increase in both housing stock and population.

  • Buckeye: Aiming to become a major city, Buckeye has experienced substantial growth and development.

  • Mohave County: The New Kingman-Butler area has witnessed a surge in housing and multifamily development.

  • Tucson Suburbs: Valencia West and Marana have also seen significant growth in housing and population.


The Appeal of Exurbs


People are drawn to exurbs for their lower density, quieter lifestyle, and often lower cost of living. With the rise of remote work, these areas offer a more attractive option for those seeking a better work-life balance. Read full Post.

Phx Condo Market Report July 2024: Inventory Rises 100-200% Year Over Year Amid Strong Demand.


Inventory Rises Amid Strong Demand

In July 2024, the Phoenix condo market has seen a notable increase in inventory, with available condos rising by 193.12% year-over-year, resulting in a 5.54-month supply. Despite the higher inventory, demand remains robust, with condos averaging 51 days on the market and selling for about 97.8% of the asking price. The median sale price holds steady at $305,000, reflecting sustained buyer interest.


Scottsdale Condo Market Overview

Scottsdale also presents a balanced market with a slight lean toward sellers, showing a 5.32-month supply of condos. Inventory has increased by 108.63% over the past year. Homes stay on the market for an average of 51 days, selling at 97.2% of the asking price. The median sale price is higher at $515,000, indicating a strong market value.


Tempe Condo Market Insights

Tempe's condo market remains balanced, with a 3.55-month supply of inventory and a 139.86% increase over the past year. Homes sell quickly, averaging 40 days on the market and achieving 98.2% of their asking price. The median sale price in Tempe is $359,000, reflecting a healthy, active market with competitive pricing.


Conclusion

Despite rising inventories across the Phoenix metro area, the condo market continues to display strong demand, with homes selling close to their asking prices and within reasonable timeframes. Buyers now have more options, while sellers still see competitive offers, creating a balanced market across the region. Read Full Post.

New Phoenix Homes Now Cheaper by the Foot Than Resale Homes.


In a notable shift, new homes across the U.S. are now generally cheaper per square foot than existing homes, according to a recent Zillow report. In May, new construction homes sold for $209.70 per square foot, compared to $213.20 for existing homes—a $3.50 difference and the largest discount in at least six years. This contrasts with pre-pandemic trends when new homes were typically $15 to $22 more expensive per square foot than existing ones. In Phoenix, new homes are $31 less per square foot than resale properties, making them a particularly attractive option. This trend is beneficial for buyers, as they can not only enjoy lower prices but also benefit from builder incentives and favorable mortgage terms. With a median sold price of around $742,000 for new homes in Phoenix, the combination of reduced cost per square foot and additional perks makes new construction a smart choice. For those interested in exploring new homes in Phoenix, visiting sites like NewHomeSource.com and consulting with a real estate agent can provide valuable guidance and help you take advantage of these savings. Read Full Post.

First Look New Buyer Broker Agreement to Show Property Form.

Introducing the new Buyer Broker Agreement required to view any property! This important document, now mandatory under the recent National Association of Realtors (NAR) settlement case, ensures that buyers have dedicated representation when purchasing a home. Effective August 17th, buyers must sign this agreement before viewing any property, unless they choose to go directly to the seller's agent. Additionally, some sellers are now asking for this form to be signed as well. These changes help provide clarity and transparency, making your home-buying experience smoother and more informed.

IN OTHER NEWS

Monday, August 19, 2024

Sharpen Your Saws, Plus all the Tools for Building a Tool Chest

Sharpen Your Handsaws;
Modern Apprenticeship Papers
& Is it OK to Use Mahogany?

A digest of all the stuff Lost Art Press published during the last week with links.


Lost Art Digest, Aug. 19, 2024


After a week of teaching, it gets so quiet around here that I wonder if I've gone deaf. This week, Kale will be finishing up the Irish armchair they built during the class – the first chair of their apprenticeship (see below for details).


Lost Art Press Blog


Saws, Teeth & Tooth Spacing

A meaty excerpt from "Set & File: A Practical Guide to Saw Sharpening," by Matt Cianci. After running out of the first printing in just weeks, we have it back in stock. If you are wondering what all the fuss is about, check out this excerpt that will get you started on understanding teeth.


Recommended: Gibson Chair Class

A couple friends are teaching a class in making a Gibson chair in the Detroit area. The class is coming up fast (Sept. 30). But if you can make it, you'll get some great instruction on making this very comfortable Irish form.


Tools to Build the Swedish Tool Chest

Here's a list of all the tools we used in the video "Make a Swedish Tool Chest" with Whitney Miller. It's a great video for beginners, and Whitney makes it fun. The list includes brand names, which is a peek at what we all personally like to use.


A Moxon-inspired Printing Press

An interesting intersection between woodworking and printing. The Folger Shakespeare Library in Washington, D.C., has recently set up a Joseph Moxon-style printing press to show how Shakespear's folios would have been printed. An interesting tale told by Sunzanne Ellison.


About Whitney Miller

Whitney Miller, who host the new "Make a Swedish Tool Chest" video, isn't a professional woodworker. She's a TV anchor who has a passion for making things with her hands, whether it's her clothes or a tool chest. This is a quick look at why she was the obvious choice for this video.


For Sale: Comb-back Stick Chair in Old Mahogany

A large comb-back stick chair in old mahogany. It's an unusual but stunning combination of a folk-style chair with high-style wood.


The American Peasant Substack


April 18, 2024

A long string of traumatic events ended on April 18. After pondering them all in my truck for a few minutes, I made some important decisions about the future of Lost Art Press and my work.

(Free for everyone)


My Problem with Mahogany

My favorite wood to work is old mahogany. But most of what you find in lumberyards today has been illegally harvested. Is it possible to use this wood ethically? I argue: Yes.

(Free for everyone)


Earlywood: Politics and Woodworking

This will not upset you. Have you ever wondered if woodworkers are predominantly conservative or liberal (or something else)? Social science surveys have the answer.

(Free for everyone)


Surprise! It's Boring

If I have to watch one more lame video tease about a secret project a woodworker is working on, I will gouge my eyes out with a red aluminum tool's affiliate code. If you care about the craft (and want us to care about your work) then show it.

(For paid subscribers, with a free preview)


The Anarchist's Apprentice Substack


Filling in the Gaps

Sometimes an apprenticeship is rubbing on wax and then rubbing it off – almost endlessly. There's a reason for it, however.

(Free for everyone)


It Begins: Apprenticeship Chair No. 1

Kale and Chris sign apprenticeship papers. Read the full text of the document and the rationale behind it.

(For paid subscribers, with a free preview)


Never Sponsored Substack


Fitz vs. Chris: 1/2" Chisel Comparison

Chris and Megan debate their favorite – and least favorite – brands of new chisels.

(Free for everyone)


On Instagram This Week

It's Whitey Miller week (again) on Instagram. Lots of little snippets for you to sample.


Monday, August 12, 2024

Free Chair Design Tool, Plus a Dire Warning about Toolmaking

Amazing Chair Design Tool & What We Like (and Hate) in Chisels

A quick look at all the stuff Lost Art Press published during the last seven days.

I'm teaching a chair class this week (which is why this digest is late). Megan is designing the pages for her Dutch Tool Chest book, and Kale is assisting my class and building a chair as well. Here's what we published last week.


Lost Art Press Blog


The Human Form Hidden in Plain Sight

A quick excerpt from "By Hand & Eye," George Walker and Jim Tolpin's first book together. This is the landmark design book that laid out their ideas for how furniture design is governed by simple whole-number ratios. In this excerpt, they explain what is behind those ratios.


'Set & File' Back in Stock (Yay); Delays on Other Books (Boo)

Matt Cianci's fast-selling book on saw sharpening is back in stock. Unfortunately, two other titles have been delayed by manufacturing problems with the covers (the post includes photos of the problems).


Digital Chair Design Tool (It's Free)

A reader has developed a free web-based tool that allows you to "build" your own lowback stick chair to your exact specifications of rake and splay and number of sticks. You simply move sliders to change the specs. Then you click a button and you get all the layouts for that chair. Amazing. P.S. There's also a free tool there for laying out dovetails.

The American Peasant Substack


People Take Warning

Toolmakers – even big and successful ones – can disappear in almost no time. This post shows how the woodworking machinery industry was turned upside down in the 1990s. And it warns what could be ahead for the hand tool industry.

(Free for everyone)


Willard Street Words

Every workshop has pithy or pitiful expressions that are said when things go horribly wrong – or go kinda right. Here is a lit of our workshop's words.

(Free for everyone)


The Anarchist's Apprentice Substack


I'm Ready for My Close-Up

Kale published the construction drawings and cutting list for the clamp rack they just built. Plus, a video tour of the rack.

(For paid subscribers, with a free preview)


A Little Rust? No Problem

How to remove small spots of corrosion with rubberized abrasive.

(For paid subscribers, with a free preview)


Never Sponsored Substack


What Makes a Good Chisel

Chris and Megan explain what they think are the important aspects of a good chisel (hint: it's not edge retention). There's also a video with the post that explains these key points.

(Free for everyone)

On Instagram This Week

It's Whitey Miller week on Instagram. We're posting short video excerpts from her new video for beginners on building a Swedish Tool Chest.

Friday, August 9, 2024

LAP Open Wire Tomorrow; Plus Brass Bevel Monkeys and….

LAP Open Wire Tomorrow; Plus Brass Bevel Monkeys and….


Megan and I will be hosting our first Open Wire tomorrow (Aug. 10) on the blog. Come with your questions, and we will try to answer them as best we can.


If you want to participate, simply go to our blog (link here) tomorrow and leave your question as a comment. We will reply (even if we don't have an answer).


Now Shipping: Brass Bevel Monkeys

We have completed our first batch of Brass Bevel Monkeys. They are lovely: They're an engraved heavy brass plate that's been hand-colored with black wax. Because these are hand-finished, each one is a little different.


The Brass Bevel Monkeys are $99 and come in a hand-stamped kraft-paper envelope (it's great for storing the tool).


Closeout on the Original Bevel Monkeys

Because we are switching to brass, we are closing out our stock of original Bevel Monkeys made in Trolase. They are only $20 until we run out of stock.


All our books and tools are made in the USA.


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View this email in your browser Lost Art Press Digest, Oct 8, 2024 The Hobbit-y Chair (from The Stick Chair Journal no. 2). Lost ...